Report Date - The report is dated October 28, 2025 [1][5][10] Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold is expected to continue to decline, while silver will rebound in a volatile manner [2][5] - Copper prices are supported by bullish market sentiment [10] - Zinc will have a slight rebound [13] - Lead prices are supported by the decrease in overseas inventories [16] - Tin prices are subject to macro - economic impacts [18] - Aluminum will trade in a range, alumina will rebound from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [22] - Nickel prices will fluctuate narrowly due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and stainless steel has limited downside potential but lacks upward drivers [24] - Lithium carbonate will fluctuate strongly due to the firm basis [27] - Industrial silicon has support at the bottom as warehouse receipts continue to decline, and polysilicon is affected by sentiment, with attention on this week's policy [30][31] - Iron ore prices will fluctuate repeatedly [34] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices may rebound during the off - season, with attention on expectations [36] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will have wide - range fluctuations as the spot market trading sentiment is average [40] - Coke and coking coal will fluctuate strongly, supported by fundamentals [43][44] - Log prices will fluctuate repeatedly [46] - Para - xylene will be strong in the short term [50] - PTA will rebound in the short term as the market focuses on potential anti - involution policies, and MEG will rebound due to the supply contraction caused by multiple device overhauls [51] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The Shanghai gold 2512 contract closed at 934.14 with a daily decline of 0.42%, and the night - session price was 919.70 with a decline of 2.25%. The trend intensity is - 1 [5] - Silver: The Shanghai silver 2512 contract closed at 11394 with a daily increase of 0.54%, and the night - session price was 11150 with a decline of 2.44%. The trend intensity is - 1 [5] Base Metals - Copper: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 88370 with a daily increase of 0.74%, and the night - session price was 88130 with a decline of 0.27%. China's September refined copper imports were 374,075.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.76%. The trend intensity is 1 [10] - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22365 with a daily increase of 0.04%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 550 tons to 37050 tons. The trend intensity is 0 [13] - Lead: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17520 with a daily decline of 0.43%. LME lead inventory decreased by 3000 tons to 232375 tons. The trend intensity is 0 [16] - Tin: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 286,720 with a daily increase of 0.85%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 1900 yuan/ton to 281,900 yuan/ton. The trend intensity is 0 [18] - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21360. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5107.80 yuan/ton. The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0 [22] - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 122,400. Due to the Indonesian government's takeover of a nickel mine area, it is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [24] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate: The 2511 contract closed at 81,120. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased by 1193 yuan/ton to 76595 yuan/ton. The trend intensity is 1 [27] Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: The Si2601 contract closed at 8965. The industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.9 million tons. The trend intensity is 0 [31] - Polysilicon: The PS2601 contract closed at 54,500. The polysilicon enterprise profit was 8.5 yuan/kg. The trend intensity is 0 [31] Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: The 12601 contract closed at 786.5 with a daily increase of 2.01%. The price of PB ore (61.5%) increased by 14 yuan/ton to 792 yuan/ton. The trend intensity is 0 [34] - Rebar: The RB2601 contract closed at 3100 with a daily increase of 1.54%. The national September crude steel output was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [36] - Hot - rolled coil: The HC2601 contract closed at 3299 with a daily increase of 1.45%. The total inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.27 million tons [36] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon 2601 contract closed at 5542. The spot price of ferrosilicon: FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton. The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [40] - Silicomanganese: The manganese silicon 2601 contract closed at 5772. The price of manganese ore: Mn44 block was 39.7 yuan/ton - degree. The trend intensity is 0 [40] - Coke: The J2601 contract closed at 1779.5 with a daily increase of 1.3%. The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke delivered to the factory increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1495 yuan/ton. The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 1 [44] - Coking coal: The JM2601 contract closed at 1263.5 with a daily increase of 1.2%. The price of Jinquan Meng 5 coking coal self - pick - up increased by 25 yuan/ton to 1332 yuan/ton. The trend intensity is 1 [44] Forestry Products - Log: The 2511 contract closed at 763 with a daily decline of 4.2%. The price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market remained unchanged at 760 yuan/m³. The trend intensity is 1 [47] Chemical Products - Para - xylene: It will be strong in the short term [50] - PTA: It will rebound in the short term as the market focuses on potential anti - involution policies [51] - MEG: It will rebound due to the supply contraction caused by multiple device overhauls [51]
黄金：继续回落，白银：震荡反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-28 01:45