原油：逢高试空

Report Summary Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "selling short on rallies" for crude oil, with a trend strength of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3][8]. Core View - The report anticipates a bearish trend in the crude oil market due to factors such as potential OPEC+ production increases, rising global seaborne crude oil volumes, and concerns about supply glut [3][9]. Detailed Summaries 1. Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI December crude oil futures closed down $0.19 per barrel, a 0.31% decline, at $61.31 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures closed down $0.32 per barrel, a 0.49% decline, at $65.62 per barrel; SC2512 crude oil futures closed down 3.50 yuan per barrel, a 0.75% decline, at 464.90 yuan per barrel [3]. 2. Crude Oil Arbitrage - Mexican Gulf: All major crude oils' arbitrage is closed, indicating poor economic viability [4]. - Atlantic: Forties and Saharan Blend have open arbitrage, showing regional and cost advantages respectively [4]. - Northwest Europe: Azeri Light, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light have open arbitrage, indicating economic viability for European exports [5]. - Mediterranean: All major crude oils' arbitrage is closed, mainly due to high costs and price competition [6]. - Asia: All major crude oils' arbitrage is closed, with regional crude having an advantage [7]. 3. Key Market News - OPEC+ Production Increase: Eight OPEC+ producers may increase production by 13.7 million barrels per day in December, following a cumulative increase of over 2.7 million barrels per day since April [9]. - Global Seaborne Crude Volume: It has reached a new record, with supply increasing due to production expansion by OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries. Despite sanctions on Russian oil companies, prices are expected to fall 7% this month, and a record supply glut is predicted next year [9]. - Other News: Ukraine may expand attacks on Russian refineries; India is waiting for clear information on Russian oil imports; Canada has a contingency plan if the US doesn't negotiate [9].