软商品日报：美元疲软提振大宗价格，软商品短线获得支撑-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The weak US dollar boosts commodity prices, and soft commodities receive short - term support. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5750.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5725.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14650.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closes at 14.47, with a change of - 3.34%. US cotton closes at 64.65, with a change of 0.73% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks in summer, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is bottom - support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 7795.0, with a change of - 4.76%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2488.0, with a change of - 0.60% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, there was excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia, which was not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the start - up time of sugar mills was postponed. The impact on sugar beet production needs further tracking and evaluation. At the end of September and early October, major sugar - cane producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi were affected by typhoons, resulting in sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton - growing period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. Some areas have entered the centralized harvesting period. As of October 6, the cotton - picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14000 to 16000 yuan [3] Data Quick View Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (in dollars) was 14.97 on October 26, 2025, and 14.47 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 3.34% - US cotton (in dollars) was 64.18 on October 26, 2025, and 64.65 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.73% [4] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning) was 5750.0 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% - Sugar (Kunming) was 5730.0 on October 24, 2025, and 5725.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.09% - Cotton Index 328 was 3281 on October 24, 2025, and 3280 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.20% - Cotton (Xinjiang) was 14650.0 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05 was 48.0 on October 26, 2025, and 46.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 4.17% - SR05 - 09 was - 14.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 11.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 21.43% - SR09 - 01 was - 34.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 35.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 2.94% - CF01 - 05 was 0.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 10.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - inf% - CF05 - 09 was - 160.0 on October 26 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% - CF09 - 01 was 160.0 on October 26, 2025, and 170.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 6.25% - Sugar 01 basis was 284.0 on October 26, 2025, and 280.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 1.41% - Sugar 05 basis was 332.0 on October 26, 2025, and 326.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 1.81% - Sugar 09 basis was 318.0 on October 26, 2025, and 315.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.94% - Cotton 01 basis was 1263.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1268.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.40% - Cotton 05 basis was 1263.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1258.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.40% - Cotton 09 basis was 1103.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1098.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.45% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA was 75.55 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit was 1650.5 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - For SR601C5400, the implied volatility is 0.0752, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 7.1 - For SR601P5400, the implied volatility is 0.0743 - For CF601C13600, the implied volatility is 0.074, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 7.97 - For CF601P13600, the implied volatility is 0.0752 [4] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts (in pieces) - Sugar was 8185.0 on October 24, 2025, and 7795.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 4.76% - Cotton was 2503.0 on October 24, 2025, and 2488.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.60% [4]