铅锌日评：沪铅警惕冲高回落，沪锌持续上行动力或不足-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, the lead market shows both supply and demand growth, but refinery operations are below expectations due to factors like raw materials, leading to tight spot circulation and low social inventories. With the lead price rising significantly, refineries are profitable and the import window is open. There is a need to be vigilant about the lead price's potential to rise and then fall [1]. - For zinc, the macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic ore supply situation has tightened. The zinc price has some support at the bottom, but considering the weak domestic end - market, the upward momentum for the zinc price may be insufficient [1]. Summary by Relevant Information Lead - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.29% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract dropped by 0.43% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 2.78%, and the open interest increased by 0.65%. The LME inventory and Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged at 232,375 tons and 23,048 tons respectively. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 0.43% to 8.69 [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, causing a slight fluctuation in primary lead production. For recycled lead, refineries that had previously undergone maintenance are gradually resuming production, increasing supply. The terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises are operating well, with demand increasing [1]. - Company News: Shengda Resources' subsidiary, Dongsheng Mining, received approval for the resumption of work on its 250,000 - ton/year mining project of the Bayanwula silver polymetallic mine. The mine has not been completed and put into production, and the accident did not have a significant impact on the company's current operating performance [1]. - Trading Strategy: Consider lightly shorting at high levels [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.09% compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.04% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 7.96%, and the open interest increased by 0.85%. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 37,050 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.19% to 65,724 tons. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio increased by 0.04% to 7.41 [1]. - Fundamentals: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased to 3,250 yuan/metal ton last week, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index decreased to 110.25 US dollars/dry ton. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. The refinery profit and production enthusiasm have improved, with an expected monthly output of around 600,000 tons. The demand has not improved significantly, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio continues to decline [1]. - Trading Strategy: Temporarily observe [1].