Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock indices, it is expected that there is little risk of a significant decline, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - For precious metals, the pricing is relatively full. After taking profit on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the prices may remain weak in the medium term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - For iron ore, the short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term trend is turning strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may remain in excess, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [19][20]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [25][26]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate [27][28]. - For natural rubber, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [31]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [34]. - For urea, the downside space is limited [37]. - For p - xylene (PX), it may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and investors can consider participating at the bottom [38]. - For PTA, it may fluctuate in the short term, and a cautiously bullish view is recommended [39][40]. - For ethylene glycol, it may fluctuate in the short term, and the downside space may be limited [41]. - For short - fiber, it may fluctuate following costs in the short term [43][44]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [45]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. - For copper, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [47][49]. - For tin, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [50]. - For nickel, it is expected to fluctuate [53]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider buying call options on soybean meal after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [55][56]. - For palm oil, temporarily wait and see [58]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [60]. - For cotton, the upside space of the price is expected to be limited [62][63]. - For sugar, there is certain support at the bottom [65][66]. - For apples, wait and see [68]. - For live pigs, consider taking short - term profit on short positions and then wait and see, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [71]. - For eggs, continue to hold short positions and pay attention to opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [73]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch may follow the corn market [76]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.32% to 115.400 yuan [5]. - The central bank is studying a one - time personal credit relief policy, and will resume open - market Treasury bond trading. It will also crack down on virtual currency operations [6]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trending market [6]. Stock Indices - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 1.24%, and others had different changes [8]. - The CSRC issued opinions on protecting small and medium - sized investors, including optimizing the IPO pricing mechanism [9]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that there is little risk of a significant decline [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed at 934.14 with a decline of 0.42%, and silver rose 0.55% [11]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Central bank gold purchases and expected Fed rate cuts are positive, but the recent increase is large [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are in a certain range [13]. - In the medium term, the price is dominated by supply - demand. Demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and supply capacity is still in surplus. The inventory pressure is obvious [13]. - The price of hot - rolled coils may be similar to that of rebar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The PB powder port spot price is 793 yuan/ton [15]. - The daily output of molten iron supports the price. The supply has increased since the second quarter, but the year - on - year decline in the first 9 months remains. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supportive [15]. - Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose slightly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the spot purchase price of coke has risen for the second time [17]. - The short - term trend is turning strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.24% to 5802 yuan/ton, and silicon - iron rose 0.36% to 5564 yuan/ton [19]. - The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the cost of ferroalloys has risen. The production is at a high level, and the short - term supply is in excess [19]. - Consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [20]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated at a high level. The Baker Hughes rig count increased, and India will comply with sanctions on Russia [21]. - Although the rig count increased, it is difficult to increase US crude oil production. Sanctions on Russia and reduced purchases by India and China are positive for oil prices [22]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, imports declined, and exports decreased [24][25]. - The sudden supply shortage in Singapore and sanctions on Russia are positive for fuel oil prices [25]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 1.43%. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - to - medium term, and the raw material side is bearish [27]. - It is expected to fluctuate [28]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.20%, and 20 - grade rubber rose 0.08%. The supply is affected by weather, and demand and inventory have changed [29][30]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities [31]. PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.64%. The supply is in excess, but the downward space may be limited [32]. - Pay attention to changes on the supply side [34]. Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract closed flat. The supply has decreased due to more device overhauls, and demand has increased slightly [35]. - The downside space is limited [37]. p - Xylene (PX) - Last trading day, the PX main contract rose 1.35%. The PX load increased, and imports decreased. Crude oil prices are supported [38]. - The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may fluctuate and adjust. Consider participating at the bottom [38]. PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 1.85%. Supply and demand have changed, and the processing fee has decreased [39]. - It may fluctuate in the short term, and a cautiously bullish view is recommended [40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.46%. The overall supply load increased, and inventory decreased. Demand support is limited [41]. - It may fluctuate in the short term, and the downside space may be limited [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2512 main contract rose 1.33%. The device load decreased, and demand improved [42]. - It may fluctuate following costs in the short term [43][44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 1.42%. The load increased slightly, and exports slowed down [45]. - It is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [45]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the main contract rose 2.53% to 81900 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and consumption in the energy - storage sector is strong [46]. - Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The spot price increased, but downstream consumption意愿 was low after the price increase [47][48]. - The non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and positive Sino - US and domestic meetings are positive for copper prices [48]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [49]. Tin - Last trading day, the main contract rose 0.22% to 285580 yuan/ton. The supply is tight, and demand shows certain resilience [50]. - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [50]. Nickel - Last trading day, the main contract fell 0.87% to 121260 yuan/ton. Supply concerns have resurfaced, and the market is in an oversupply situation [52][53]. - It is expected to fluctuate [53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal fell 0.27% to 2932 yuan/ton, and soybean oil rose 0.59% to 8234 yuan/ton. The soybean crushing volume increased, and inventory decreased [55]. - Consider buying call options on soybean meal after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [56]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market fell for the second day. Indonesian biodiesel consumption increased, and Malaysian exports decreased slightly. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory increased [57]. - Temporarily wait and see [58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic imports of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil have changed. Inventory has decreased [59]. - Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [60]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market has high expectations for Sino - US negotiations. Textile exports are relatively stable, and domestic production is expected to increase [61].
西南期货早间评论-20251028
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-10-28 01:46