格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro conditions are improving, and the strengthening of external vegetable oils is expected to drive the collective rise of domestic vegetable oils. It is recommended to exit previous short positions and enter long positions. For double - meal products, due to the expected increase in import costs and the rise of US soybeans, double - meal will continue to rebound. Hold existing long positions, do not chase new highs, and wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 27, the vegetable oil market showed a differentiated trend. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil were strong due to Sino - US easing, while palm oil was still under pressure due to poor export data. The main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8,234 yuan/ton, up 0.49% day - on - day, with an increase of 19,494 lots. The main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 9,100 yuan/ton, down 0.24% day - on - day, with an increase of 6,799 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 9,748 yuan/ton, down 0.13% day - on - day, with a decrease of 7,617 lots [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On October 27, Sino - US economic and trade teams had their fifth face - to - face consultation since May. The two sides reached a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing 100% tariffs on China. International oil prices closed slightly lower on October 27. Brazil may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% by March 2026. If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons. Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25 decreased by 0.4% compared with the same period in September. From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.71% month - on - month. As of the 43rd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils increased by 2.90% week - on - week [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Internationally, the continuous rise of crude oil and the Sino - US trade easing are expected to boost vegetable oils. The US - China negotiation results led to a jump in US soybeans and a rebound in US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil is still under pressure due to increased production and decreased exports, but the decline is expected to be limited. Domestically, the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate has rebounded, and consumption is in a seasonal off - season. Macro factors are the main influencing factors [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, enter new long positions. The pressure and support levels for different contracts are provided, such as the Y2601 contract with a pressure level of 9,000 and a support level of 8,000 [2] 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 23, domestic oilseeds fell, and the "buy oil, sell meal" arbitrage was unlocked, which supported the double - meal market. The main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at a certain price, down 0.03% day - on - day, with a decrease of 2,932 lots. The main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at a certain price, up 0.43% day - on - day, with a decrease of 2,653 lots [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation reached a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing 100% tariffs on China. As of October 20, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil's Parana state was 52%, and the excellent - good rate was 98%. In September, China's soybean imports reached 1.2869 billion tons, a record high. The Trump administration may announce a plan to rescue US farmers with an initial expenditure of up to $15 billion. As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 102.2 million tons. As of the 43rd week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory decreased by 312,000 tons week - on - week, and the domestic soybean meal inventory increased by 13.48% week - on - week [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - The market expects the resumption of US soybean exports to China, driving up US soybeans. The domestic fourth - quarter soybean supply is not in short - supply, but the procurement of Brazilian soybeans is slow due to poor crushing margins. The domestic rapeseed raw material inventory has dropped to zero, causing a sharp rise in the rapeseed meal futures market. Overall, due to the improving macro environment and the rise of US soybeans, the double - meal market continues to rebound [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, participate in short - term long positions cautiously as the rebound space is limited. Wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts, such as the M2601 contract with a pressure level of 3,250 and a support level of 2,685 [3]