宝城期货橡胶早报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai Rubber 2601 contract is expected to run strongly with short - term and intraday oscillations and a medium - term weakening trend [1][5]. - The Synthetic Rubber 2512 contract is expected to run weakly with short - term, intraday, and medium - term oscillations [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Viewpoints - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation and weakening [1][5] - Intraday: Oscillation and strengthening [1][5] - Reference view: Strong operation [1][5] - Core Logic - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, improving the macro - sentiment, and the rubber futures sector had a valuation repair [5]. - The better - than - expected September domestic new car production and sales data in September supported the industrial factors and boosted the bulls' confidence [5]. - The positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks over the weekend continued to improve the macro - sentiment [5]. - On the night session of Monday this week, the Shanghai Rubber 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and strengthening trend, with the futures price rising 0.13% to 15390 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Viewpoints - Short - term: Oscillation [1] - Medium - term: Oscillation and weakening [1][7] - Intraday: Oscillation and weakening [1][7] - Reference view: Weak operation [1][7] - Core Logic - Although the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies and improved the macro - sentiment, the supply - demand fundamentals of synthetic rubber are still weak [7]. - The supply pressure of synthetic rubber continues to increase. In 2025, the planned new capacity of domestic butadiene is 980,000 tons, and the total capacity is expected to reach 7.677 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [7]. - On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price falling 1.13% to 10920 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [7].