国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251028

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including short - term strength for p - xylene, short - term rebounds for PTA and MEG, and different trends such as oscillation, decline, and stability for other commodities [2][10][11][13] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Anti - involution drives supply contraction expectations, with a short - term upward trend and positive spreads in monthly contracts. The domestic device operating rate is 85.9% (+1%), and the Asian overall load operating rate is 78.5% (+0.5%) [10] - PTA: The market focuses on potential anti - involution policies, with a short - term rebound but limited upside. The domestic PTA load is 78.8% (+2.1%), and polyester load remains at 91.4% [10][11][12] - MEG: Multiple device overhauls lead to supply contraction, with a short - term rebound but limited upside. Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce load in December, and Sichuan Zhengdaikai plans to overhaul in November [10][13] Rubber - The rubber market shows an oscillating and strengthening trend. As of October 26, 2025, the combined inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas decreased by 0.53 million tons, a decline of 1.20% [14][15][16] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market operates within the fundamental valuation range. The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, and the domestic cis - butadiene rubber ex - factory price is stable, but the market quotation range has declined [18][19][20] LLDPE - The LLDPE market mainly oscillates. The raw material crude oil price rebounds, and downstream demand provides support, but the supply pressure will gradually increase later [21][22] PP - The PP market stops falling in the short term and oscillates in the medium term. Multiple factors cause downward pressure, but recent factors such as oil price rebounds and supply cuts lead to a short - term rebound [25][26] Caustic Soda - The far - month valuation of caustic soda is suppressed. The alumina industry's high - production and high - inventory pattern puts pressure on caustic soda, and the cost has decreased recently [29][30] Pulp - The pulp market oscillates. The supply pressure persists, and the downstream demand is average, lacking strong driving factors [34][36][37] Glass - The glass original sheet price is stable. The domestic float glass market price is generally stable with minor fluctuations, and the market trading atmosphere is average [39][40] Methanol - The methanol market is under oscillating pressure. The high supply and high inventory put pressure on the price, but port logistics contradictions provide some support [42][45][46] Urea - The urea market oscillates in the short term. The market is in a stalemate after the increase, with high supply and weak demand as the main contradictions in the medium term [47][49][50] Styrene - The styrene market mainly oscillates in the short term. The supply and demand are balanced in stages, and the market mainly trades cost contradictions. Attention should be paid to the marginal demand increase after the Sino - US negotiation [51][52] Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market changes little. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with a narrow increase in supply and general downstream demand [54] LPG and Propylene - LPG: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost changes [57] - Propylene: The supply and demand are relatively loose, with a short - term weak and oscillating trend [58] PVC - The PVC market oscillates at a low level. The high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change, and the export may slow down [65][67] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The night - session continues to rise, and it remains strong in the short term [68] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It maintains a strong trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded [68] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) oscillates and consolidates. The market is in a high - level oscillating and consolidating state [70][79]