有色金属日报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Due to the "elimination" of US tariff threats against China, the equity market strengthened, and copper prices continued to rise. With expected progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a likely Fed rate cut, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 87,200 - 89,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,900 - 11,100 dollars/ton [2][3]. - The improvement in market risk appetite led to an increase in aluminum prices. After supply disruptions such as the shutdown of the Mozal aluminum plant and the reduction of the Grundartangi aluminum plant, aluminum prices are expected to further oscillate upward. The reference range for the main SHFE aluminum contract is 21,150 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [5][6]. - The lead market shows that the apparent inventory of lead ore is decreasing, and the smelting profit of recycled lead is improving. With the continuous reduction of lead ingot social and factory inventories, and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, it is expected that SHFE lead will operate strongly in the short term [8][9]. - In the zinc market, the apparent inventory of zinc ore is slightly increasing, and the TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is declining. The risk of a structural problem in LME zinc is high. With the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - For tin, the supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand from emerging fields provides support. With the improvement of the macro - environment, tin prices may oscillate higher in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 35,000 - 36,500 dollars/ton [13][14]. - Regarding nickel, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant in the short term, which drags down nickel prices. In the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider gradually establishing long positions if the price drops enough. The reference range for the short - term SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [15][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the weekend macro - positive factors and the improvement of the fundamentals may lead to the continuous reduction of social inventory until the end of the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure brought by industrial hedging and supply elasticity. The reference range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 79,400 - 83,200 yuan/ton [19][20]. - In the alumina market, although the ore price has short - term support, it may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, but considering the positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations and the expected Fed easing policy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22][23]. - For stainless steel, the planned production line maintenance of a steel mill in East China may relieve the inventory pressure. However, the demand support is insufficient, and the cost support has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [25][26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost side provides support, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space of the price [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The US tariff threat against China was "eliminated", the equity market strengthened, and copper prices continued to rise. The LME copper 3M contract rose 0.49% to 11,000 dollars/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 88,130 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons to 139,575 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly [2]. Strategy View - Sino - US economic and trade negotiations made progress, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates. With the tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventory, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 87,200 - 89,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,900 - 11,100 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - The improvement of market risk appetite led to an increase in aluminum prices. The LME aluminum closed up 0.77% to 2,878 dollars/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,255 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract position increased, and the domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [5]. Strategy View - After supply disruptions such as the shutdown of the Mozal aluminum plant and the reduction of the Grundartangi aluminum plant, and considering the low domestic inventory and the improvement of the global trade situation, aluminum prices are expected to further oscillate upward. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,150 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.40% to 17,521 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S was flat at 2,017.5 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,250 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 2.53 tons [8]. Strategy View - The apparent inventory of lead ore is decreasing, the smelting profit of recycled lead is improving, and the demand for lead - acid batteries is slightly warming. With the continuous reduction of lead ingot social and factory inventories and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE lead is expected to operate strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 0.04% to 22,369 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 11.5 dollars to 3,038.5 dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,210 yuan/ton, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly to 16.35 tons [11]. Strategy View - The apparent inventory of zinc ore is slightly increasing, and the TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is declining. The risk of a structural problem in LME zinc is high. With the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. Tin Market Information - On October 27, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand from emerging fields provides support. The national main tin ingot social inventory decreased by 182 tons to 7,743 tons [13]. Strategy View - With the improvement of the macro - environment and the tight balance of tin supply and demand, tin prices may oscillate higher in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 35,000 - 36,500 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated narrowly at a low level. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 122,400 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The cost of nickel ore was stable and slightly strong, the price of nickel iron was weak, and the MHP coefficient price was high [15]. Strategy View - The inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant in the short term, which drags down nickel prices. In the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider gradually establishing long positions if the price drops enough. The reference range for the short - term SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 2.16% to 80,569 yuan, the LC2601 contract closed at 81,900 yuan, up 2.99%, and the battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was at par [19]. Strategy View - The weekend macro - positive factors and the improvement of the fundamentals may lead to the continuous reduction of social inventory until the end of the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure brought by industrial hedging and supply elasticity. The reference range for the GFEX lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 79,400 - 83,200 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina Market Information - On October 27, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.67% to 2,840 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price rose 5 yuan/ton to 2,795 yuan/ton, and the overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB rose 4 dollars/ton to 318 dollars/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.21 tons to 22.34 tons [22]. Strategy View - Although the ore price has short - term support, it may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, but considering the positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations and the expected Fed easing policy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,815 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable or slightly decreased. The raw material prices were stable, the futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly [25]. Strategy View - The planned production line maintenance of a steel mill in East China may relieve the inventory pressure. However, the demand support is insufficient, and the cost support has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated, the AD2512 contract rose 0.05% to 20,715 yuan/ton, the weighted contract position decreased, the trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price was stable, and the inventory decreased [28]. Strategy View - The cost side provides support, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space of the price [29].