Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report maintains an optimistic view of the future of the black sector. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually easing macro - environment, but the real demand for steel is still weak in the short term. For specific varieties, each has different supply - demand situations and price trends, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as Sino - US negotiations and overseas macro - environment changes [1][4][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (1.772%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 128,819 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.953001 million lots, a decrease of 97,544 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3140 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3299 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (1.507%). The registered warehouse receipts were 104,667 tons, a decrease of 2398 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.48273 million lots, a decrease of 18,766 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive, and the prices of finished steel products fluctuated strongly. Sino - US relations were moderately eased, and the results of the trade negotiations needed to be focused on. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, the demand improved marginally, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability of steel mills declined significantly, and the supply - side pressure was reduced. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remained unchanged, but the real demand was still weak in the short term [1]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 786.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.01% (+15.50). The position changed by - 6796 lots to 558,800 lots. The weighted position was 944,200 lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.62% [3]. Strategy View - The market sentiment improved, and the iron ore futures rebounded at the technical support level. The overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase, and the recent arrival volume was at a low level. The daily average pig iron output dropped below 2.4 million tons. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The macro - environment had a certain positive impact, and the iron ore price fluctuated [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.52% to close at 5802 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 108 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) rose 0.40% to close at 5564 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 86 yuan/ton over the futures. The prices of both were in the shock range and needed to pay attention to the support level and the direction selection near the trend line [7]. Strategy View - The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee had positive statements, but there was no content exceeding market expectations. It was necessary to pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the APEC meeting. The fundamentals of the black sector were worrying due to high supply and low demand, and there was a risk of "negative feedback" in steel mills. The report was still not pessimistic about the black sector, and it was more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were likely to follow the black sector's trend [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The weighted position increased by 7556 lots to 435,130 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis was 335 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 115 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54,500 yuan/ton, up 4.20% (+2195). The weighted position increased by 19,404 lots to 251,023 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were flat, and the basis was - 1520 yuan/ton [11][14]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon was slightly up. The supply pressure continued, and the demand support weakened. The cost provided some support, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term. The polysilicon futures rose due to downstream buying and news rumors. The supply pressure might be alleviated marginally, and the supply - demand pattern might improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude was limited. It was necessary to pay attention to the implementation of news and control risks [12][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1095 yuan/ton, up 0.27% (+3). The prices in North China and Central China decreased. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million cases, up 2.3374 million cases (3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 36,011 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 73,350 lots. The main contract of soda ash closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+17). The price in Shahe increased. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (3.64%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing and the light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders increased 10,679 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 11,314 lots [17][19]. Strategy View - The glass market mainly traded low - price goods, and the demand recovery was slow. The raw material soda ash price provided support, and the glass price was expected to fluctuate widely. The soda ash supply was stable, the cost pressure increased, and the downstream demand was mainly low - price rigid demand. The soda ash price was expected to consolidate narrowly in the short term, and it was necessary to pay attention to the start - up of equipment and downstream procurement [18][20].
黑色建材日报-20251028
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-28 01:54