宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年10月28日）-20251028

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of TL2512 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations have declined, while medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that although treasury bond futures closed up in an oscillatory manner yesterday, due to the persistent problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the medium and long term to stabilize the demand side, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut. With the easing of external uncertainty risks, the warming of domestic policy benefits, and the increasing risk appetite in the stock market, the demand for treasury bonds is suppressed. Overall, the upside and downside space for treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and they will mainly be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "weak oscillation", with an overall view of "oscillation". The core logic is the change in interest rate cut expectations [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Treasury bond futures closed up in an oscillatory manner yesterday. Due to insufficient effective domestic demand, a moderately loose monetary environment is needed in the medium and long term to support treasury bond futures. In the short term, there is no strong need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the increasing risk appetite in the stock market suppresses the demand for treasury bonds. So, the short - term movement of treasury bond futures is oscillatory [5].