宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is influenced by Sino - US trade negotiations. The market trading sentiment has returned to rationality. The short - term cost - push logic has replaced the supply logic, and the soybean meal futures price shows an oscillatingly strong trend. There is no clear trend direction in the short - term, and it will run oscillatingly [5][6]. - The palm oil market is affected by the weak international oil market. The core contradiction lies in the significant inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil and the weak domestic demand. The short - term futures price is oscillatingly weak and is testing the support of the previous low [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Time - cycle Views: Short - term (within a week): oscillating; Medium - term (two weeks to one month): oscillating; Intraday: oscillatingly strong; Reference view: oscillatingly strong [5]. - Core Logic: With the initial consensus of Sino - US trade negotiations, the market focuses on China's soybean purchase quantity and schedule from the US. The domestic near - end market is under supply pressure and cautious downstream procurement. The far - end market focuses on soybean purchase progress and South American weather. The market expects trade policy adjustment and the boost of the fourth - quarter demand season. The cost - push logic has replaced the supply logic in the short - term [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - Time - cycle Views: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillatingly weak; Reference view: oscillatingly weak [5][7]. - Core Logic: The weak international oil market has intensified the bearish sentiment in the domestic palm oil market. Although the rebound of CBOT soybean oil and the rise of crude oil prices provide some support, they cannot offset the negative impact of supply pressure. The core contradiction is the significant inventory pressure in Malaysia and weak domestic demand [7].