宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025年10月28日）-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for rebar 2601 is "sideways", and the intraday outlook is "sideways and slightly weak". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has not improved, and steel prices will move sideways [1]. - Although rebar demand continues to recover seasonally, supply has also increased. The fundamentals have not improved, and there is significant pressure on inventory reduction. Steel prices are still prone to downward pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and production restrictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to stabilize in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways and slightly weak" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and steel prices move sideways [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and production restrictions in Tangshan have provided a boost, leading to a strengthening of steel futures prices. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed significantly. Construction steel mills have increased production, supply has rebounded from a low level, and inventory is relatively high, increasing pressure. Meanwhile, rebar demand has continued to improve, with high - frequency indicators rising, but it remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the downstream situation has not improved. The peak - season performance is expected to be lackluster. In summary, although rebar demand has seasonally recovered, supply has also increased, the fundamentals have not improved, and there is significant pressure on inventory reduction. Steel prices are still prone to downward pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that steel prices will continue to stabilize in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2].