中辉期货豆粕日报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Short - term bearish consolidation: This view applies to soybean meal, rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, rumors of the second shipment of Argentine soybean meal re - entering the Chinese market and Trump's remarks have dampened market sentiment. However, due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the spot market is conservative. Brazilian rainfall outlook supports price stabilization, but limited upside due to Sino - US negotiation uncertainties. Rapeseed meal has mixed factors due to trade policies and high inventory, and it follows the soybean meal trend [1]. - Short - term decline: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to decline in the short term. Palm oil has a high probability of inventory accumulation in October and weak post - festival demand. Soybean oil is pressured by US soybean harvest and has sufficient short - term supply. Rapeseed oil is affected by increased imports and the possible easing of Sino - Canadian relations [1]. - Upside resistance: Cotton faces upside resistance. International supply is pressured by new cotton harvests in the Northern Hemisphere, while Indian MSP provides some support. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, inventory is restored, but downstream demand is weak [1]. - Rebound and short - selling: This is applicable to jujube and live pigs. Jujube's fundamentals are expected to be loose, and short - term suggestions involve reducing short positions as the price approaches the cost. Live pigs have increasing supply pressure in Q4, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Market situation: As of October 24, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased, while oil - mill soybean and soybean meal inventories changed. Spot market supply is sufficient, but oil - mill profit is in the red, leading to strong price - holding intentions and weak downstream replenishment [3]. - Price data: Futures price (main contract) is 2932 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. Spot prices vary, and various spreads and basis values have changed [2]. - Outlook: Short - term bearish consolidation, with price supported by Brazilian rainfall but limited upside due to Sino - US negotiation uncertainties [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Market situation: As of October 24, coastal oil - mill菜籽 inventory was flat, rapeseed meal inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts increased. International supply may rise, and domestic demand is in the off - season [6]. - Price data: Futures price (main contract) is 2335 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. Spot prices and various spreads and basis values have changed [5]. - Outlook: Short - term bearish consolidation, following the soybean meal trend due to lack of new drivers [1][6]. Palm Oil - Market situation: As of October 24, 2025, national commercial inventory increased. October production may rise, and export performance is average, with a high probability of inventory accumulation [8]. - Price data: Futures price (main contract) is 9100 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Various price indices, trading volumes, and spreads have changed [7]. - Outlook: Short - term decline, with a weak and volatile market due to post - festival weak demand [1][8]. Cotton - Market situation: In the US, new cotton harvest is over 70%. In Brazil, new cotton processing and inspection are over 70%, and exports have accelerated. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak [10][11][12]. - Price data: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Basis, spreads, and other indicators have also seen fluctuations [9]. - Outlook: Upside resistance, with ICE market in a weak and volatile range, and domestic market facing resistance due to weak demand [1][12]. Jujube - Market situation: Some jujube areas have started harvesting, and inventory has increased seasonally. New jujube purchase prices are concentrated in a certain range, and the consumer market is in a wait - and - see state [15]. - Price data: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Basis, spreads, and other indicators have also fluctuated [13]. - Outlook: Rebound and short - selling, with loose fundamentals and suggestions to reduce short positions as the price approaches the cost [1][16]. Live Pigs - Market situation: In the short term, October planned slaughter may increase, and second - fattening has increased in some areas. Mid - term, Q4 - Q1 2026 slaughter may rise. Long - term, sow inventory decline is not significant. Demand may increase with the cooling weather [19][20]. - Price data: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Various indicators such as basis, spreads, inventory, and profit have also fluctuated [17]. - Outlook: Rebound and short - selling, with increasing supply pressure in Q4 and a suggestion to short - sell on rebounds [1][20].