Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, the weekend Sino-US economic and trade talks had a positive outcome. The market should focus on the results of the month - end Sino - US leaders' meeting. After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors rotated rapidly, with technology remaining the market's main line. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For bonds, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a situation where weak domestic demand recovery and improving inflation expectations coexist, and the bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - For precious metals, the decline in gold and silver prices is a "correction in the upward trend" rather than a "trend reversal". It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as Sino - US trade negotiation progress, supply disruptions, and low inventory [13][15]. - For black building materials, the steel price has a long - term upward logic, but the short - term demand is weak. The iron ore price will oscillate. The black sector is not pessimistic, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities [32][34][41]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. Some are recommended to wait and see, and some are expected to stop falling or rise [54][60]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks. For example, the short - term pig price may rebound, but the medium - term is still under pressure; the sugar price is expected to decline, etc. [76][85]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - Market Information: The central bank explores liquidity - providing mechanisms for non - bank institutions; the CSRC optimizes the QFII system and strengthens the protection of small and medium - sized investors [2]. - Base Ratio: IF, IC, IM, and IH have different base ratios for different contract periods [3]. - Strategy: Focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting. The technology sector is the main line, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. The national industrial enterprise profits increased in September. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net investment [5]. - Strategy: The economic growth in the third quarter slightly exceeded expectations. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver declined. The market's confidence in global central banks' short - term gold purchases weakened. The US 9 - month CPI data was lower than expected [8][9]. - Strategy: The decline in gold and silver prices is a correction. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: The copper price continued to rise. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly. The downstream procurement sentiment was weak [12]. - Strategy: Due to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and expected Fed rate cuts, and the tight supply of copper raw materials, the copper price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [13]. Aluminum - Market Information: The aluminum price rose. The domestic inventory increased, and the downstream procurement willingness was weak. The LME aluminum inventory decreased [14]. - Strategy: Supply disruptions overseas and low domestic inventory are expected to drive the aluminum price to rise further [15]. Zinc - Market Information: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulation rate slowed down [16]. - Strategy: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to the positive market atmosphere and structural risks [17]. Lead - Market Information: The lead price fell slightly. The lead ore inventory decreased, and the lead ingot social and factory inventories continued to decline [18]. - Strategy: The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short term due to positive market atmosphere and structural risks [18]. Nickel - Market Information: The nickel price oscillated at a low level. The nickel ore price was stable and slightly strong, and the nickel iron price was weak [19]. - Strategy: The short - term suggestion is to wait and see. If the nickel price drops enough, consider building long positions [20]. Tin - Market Information: The tin price rose. The supply was still tight due to the slow recovery of the Myanmar tin mine. The demand in emerging fields provided support, and the inventory decreased [22]. - Strategy: The tin price is expected to rise in the short term due to the tight supply - demand balance and improving market sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips [22]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The carbonate lithium price rose. The MMLC index and the LC2601 contract price increased [23]. - Strategy: The fundamental situation of carbonate lithium has improved, but pay attention to the pressure from hedging and supply elasticity. The reference range for the LC2601 contract is 79,400 - 83,200 yuan/ton [24]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina price rose. The domestic and overseas prices and inventory had different changes [25]. - Strategy: The short - term suggestion is to wait and see. The reference range for the AO2601 contract is 2700 - 3000 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The social inventory increased, and the raw material prices were stable [27]. - Strategy: A steel mill's planned maintenance may relieve the inventory pressure, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The cast aluminum alloy price oscillated. The contract price rose slightly, and the inventory decreased [28]. - Strategy: The cost provides support, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The registered warehouse receipts and positions decreased [31]. - Strategy: The steel price has a long - term upward logic, but the short - term demand is weak. Pay attention to Sino - US talks [32]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment increased, the iron water production decreased, and the port inventory increased [33][34]. - Strategy: The iron ore price will oscillate due to weak fundamentals and positive macro - environment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The glass price rose slightly, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price rose, and the inventory increased slightly [35][37]. - Strategy: The glass price is expected to oscillate widely, and the soda ash price is expected to consolidate narrowly [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The prices are in the oscillation range [39]. - Strategy: The black sector is not pessimistic. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The industrial silicon price rose slightly, and the polysilicon price rose significantly. The supply and demand of both have different situations [42][44]. - Strategy: The industrial silicon price is expected to consolidate in the short term. The polysilicon price may improve in the future, but pay attention to the actual implementation [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price oscillated. The views of bulls and bears are different. The tire enterprise inventory is not high [48][49][50]. - Strategy: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and wait and see. Consider partial hedging [52]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The Chinese crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased [53]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy later [54]. Methanol - Market Information: The methanol price decreased slightly. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [55]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertain import situation and high port inventory [55]. Urea - Market Information: The urea price in many places rose. The inventory increased slightly [56][57]. - Strategy: The supply and demand situation has improved slightly. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long positions on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The supply was wide, the inventory increased, and the demand decreased [58]. - Strategy: The benzene styrene price may stop falling temporarily due to high - level inventory reduction [60]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC price rose. The cost decreased, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly [61]. - Strategy: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions on rallies in the medium term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The ethylene glycol price rose. The supply was high, the inventory decreased, and the cost changed [63]. - Strategy: It is recommended to consider short positions on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [64]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA price rose. The supply increased slightly, the demand was stable, and the inventory increased slightly [65]. - Strategy: The short - term supply may accumulate slightly, and the demand is difficult to increase. Pay attention to the impact of the symposium [66]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The PX price rose. The load increased, the inventory increased, and the PXN decreased [67]. - Strategy: The PX price mainly follows the crude oil price. Pay attention to the impact of the symposium [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The PE price rose. The upstream start - up rate decreased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate increased [69]. - Strategy: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to high - level inventory reduction and seasonal demand [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The PP price rose. The upstream start - up rate increased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream start - up rate increased [71][72]. - Strategy: The PP price is under pressure due to high inventory and supply - demand imbalance [73]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: The pig price rose in many places. The supply may be limited, and the downstream acquisition enthusiasm is okay [75]. - Strategy: The short - term pig price may rebound, but the medium - term is still under pressure. It is recommended to establish anti - arbitrage positions and short on rallies [76]. Eggs - Market Information: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the market sales were average [77]. - Strategy: The spot price may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The CBOT soybean price rose. The domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are high, and the import cost may oscillate [79][80]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies due to high domestic inventory and sufficient global supply [81]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The Malaysian palm oil export and production data changed. The domestic oil price fell [82]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for the palm oil price and wait for clearer production signals [83]. Sugar - Market Information: The sugar price oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the gasoline price decreased [84]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter due to expected global sugar production increase [85]. Cotton - Market Information: The cotton price oscillated. The new cotton purchase price rose slightly, and the downstream start - up rate was low [86]. - Strategy: The cotton price may have limited upward space due to weak fundamentals [87].
文字早评2025/10/28：宏观金融类-20251028
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-28 02:33