Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate shows a strong basis and is in a moderately bullish oscillating trend [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts of lithium carbonate increased, with the 2511 contract closing at 81,120 yuan and the 2601 contract at 81,900 yuan. The trading volume of the 2511 contract decreased, while that of the 2601 contract increased. The open interest of the 2511 contract decreased, and that of the 2601 contract increased [1] - Basis Data: The basis between spot and 2511 contract was -4,570 yuan, and between spot and 2601 contract was -5,350 yuan. The basis between 2511 and 2601 contracts was -780 yuan [1] - Raw Material Prices: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) increased, reaching 906 yuan and 1,990 yuan respectively [1] - Lithium Salt Prices: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) all increased. For example, battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 76,550 yuan [1] - Downstream Product Prices: The prices of various downstream products such as ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate also showed different degrees of change. For instance, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased to 97,500 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 76,595 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,193 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 76,550 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 74,300 yuan/ton, both increasing by 1,150 yuan/ton [2] - As of October 22, 2025, the number of applications for automobile trade - in subsidies exceeded 10 million, with over 3.4 million for scrapping and over 6.6 million for replacement. New energy vehicles accounted for 57.2% in the 2025 automobile trade - in, driving a 24.4% year - on - year increase in new energy passenger vehicle retail sales from January to September, with a market penetration rate of 52.1% (57.8% in September) [3] - In the first three quarters of this year, the number of scrapped automobile recoveries was 7.345 million, a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. It is estimated that about 7.1 million tons of steel, 0.92 million tons of aluminum, and 0.93 million tons of plastic can be recycled, promoting a carbon reduction of over 21 million tons [3]
碳酸锂：基差坚挺，偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-28 02:32