Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - For building materials, the view is that they will run in a range - bound consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving down and running weakly, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - For aluminum ingots, it is expected that the price will be strongly volatile in the short - term, gradually transition to the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process building steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Building materials continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3]. Aluminum - As of October 27, the SMM imported bauxite index was $73.16 per ton, down $0.4 from the previous day due to high imported ore inventory. Domestic bauxite supply is tight, but price increases are limited due to falling alumina prices and high absolute inventory [3]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was flat at 62.4% week - on - week, down 0.1% from the previous week. Different sectors showed different trends: the operating rate of aluminum sheet and strip decreased by 1 percentage point to 67.0%, aluminum cable increased by 0.4% to 64.4%, aluminum profile increased slightly to 53.7%, aluminum foil decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 71.9%, and recycled aluminum remained at 58.6% [3]. - As of October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Macro overseas interference affects market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and it is expected that the price will remain high and volatile. Pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [4].
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251028
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-10-28 02:50