塑料期货月报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the supply pressure of domestic polyethylene remained, with total production increasing year-on-year and decreasing month-on-month, and LLDPE showing double growth. The inventory was differentiated between upstream and downstream, with production enterprise inventory expanding and social inventory decreasing but with slow digestion. Import prices were differentiated, the quantity decreased, and the profit margins varied greatly. Downstream demand recovered less than expected, cost support was limited, and profits were under pressure. The market was dominated by supply and demand [4]. - In October, the supply pressure of domestic polyethylene is expected to increase, while demand may experience moderate growth with limited increase due to macro - economic uncertainties. The inventory pressure may ease from mid - to late October, and the market is likely to show a weak and volatile trend, and the specific trend depends on downstream demand release and new capacity commissioning progress [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - Supply Pressure in September and October: In September, the total domestic polyethylene production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, with LLDPE showing double growth. The total production in September was 270,648 tons, a decrease of 12,067 tons from the previous month and an increase of 41,672 tons from the same period last year. LLDPE production in September was 125,520 tons, an increase of 653 tons from the previous month and 27,387 tons from the same period last year. In October, the supply pressure is expected to increase due to fewer planned maintenance of devices, restart of previously maintained devices, and new capacity commissioning [7][9]. - Inventory Situation: In late September, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises increased, with the total reaching 458,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons. The inventory of coal - based enterprises was 68,300 tons, and that of two - oil enterprises was 390,000 tons. The social inventory decreased, with the total at 534,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,200 tons. It is expected that the inventory pressure may ease from mid - to late October [12][13][14]. - Import Situation: In September, the import prices of polyethylene were regionally differentiated, with most major regions' LLDPE prices falling month - on - month. The import quantity continued to decline, with the import volume in August being 950,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 156,900 tons. The import profit margins of different varieties varied significantly [16][17][18]. Demand Side - Demand in September: In September, the overall downstream开工率 of polyethylene was 42.57%, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises increased, indicating increased raw material stocking willingness. However, the overall demand intensity did not meet expectations, and the market was in a weak balance [21][22]. - Demand Outlook in October: In October, the demand is in the traditional peak season with release potential, such as increased demand for packaging films due to Double Eleven and for agricultural films due to cooling in the north. But due to macro - economic uncertainties, downstream enterprises are cautious, and demand is expected to grow moderately with limited increase [5][23]. Cost and Profit - Cost: In September, the cost of oil - based polyethylene decreased month - on - month to 7,548.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.64 yuan/ton. The cost of coal - based polyethylene increased slightly to 6,410.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.19 yuan/ton [26][27]. - Profit: In September, the profits of both oil - based and coal - based polyethylene production enterprises declined. The profit of oil - based enterprises was - 289.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.71 yuan/ton, and the profit of coal - based enterprises was 764.53 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15.25 yuan/ton [28]. - Price Difference: In September, the price difference between polyethylene and related varieties was differentiated. The average price difference between PE - PVC:01 contract was 2,298.82 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.44 yuan/ton, while the average price difference between PE - PP:01 contract was 275.23 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15.25 yuan/ton [29]. Summary - In September, the domestic polyethylene market was in a weak balance. Supply pressure remained, inventory was differentiated, import quantity decreased, downstream demand recovered moderately, cost support was limited, and profits were under pressure. The market was mainly dominated by supply and demand [32].