工业硅、多晶硅日评：区间整理-20251028

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a situation where supply has a certain increase and demand improvement is limited, maintaining an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upper space of the market. The polysilicon market has the supply increasing slightly in October, and the high inventory of downstream raw materials makes it difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short - term, putting pressure on the upward movement of the spot price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.50% to 8,965 yuan/ton. Polysilicon: N - type dense material remained flat at 51.50 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material fell 0.04% to 52.98 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.20% to 54,500 yuan/ton [1]. Market Inventory and Industry Data - Inventory: In the past week, the inventory of 183N and 210N solar cells narrowed, while 210RN faced inventory reduction pressure. The upstream market inventory was about 6GW, with a week - on - week decrease of 15.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.73%. Industry data: As of the end of September 2025, the national power generation installed capacity reached 3.72 billion kilowatts, with solar power generation installed capacity of 1.13 billion kilowatts (up 45.7% year - on - year) and wind power installed capacity of 0.58 billion kilowatts (up 21.3% year - on - year). In September 2025, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 9.66GW, and the newly added wind power installed capacity was 3.25GW [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Supply: In October, the southwest production area entered the high - cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises will gradually reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the start - up of northern silicon enterprises increased. After offsetting, the total start - up increased. Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend but were expected to have an output increase in October, and organic silicon enterprises maintained the pre - holiday start - up level without obvious changes [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Polysilicon - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants might have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October was expected to increase slightly. Demand: The market transaction was light during the National Day, with few new transactions, and downstream enterprises were resistant to high - price resources, waiting for the industry meeting in October [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: The oversupply pattern may suppress the upper space of the market. Pay attention to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to operate in the range. Polysilicon: Considering the high inventory of downstream raw materials, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short - term, and the upward pressure on the spot price is large. The previous long positions should pay attention to profit protection. The trading strategy is to try to go long lightly on dips before the implementation of supply - side reform policies [1].