20251028申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall supply - demand differences are not significant [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Market performance: Copper prices closed slightly lower at night. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output has high growth. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a supply - demand deficit in the global copper market [2]. - Strategy: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Zinc prices closed slightly higher at night. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. Domestic and foreign inventory situations are different, with domestic zinc prices potentially weaker than foreign ones [2]. - Strategy: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - Domestic Futures and Basis: Copper's previous closing price was 88,390 yuan/ton with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton; aluminum's was 21,305 yuan/ton with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton; zinc's was 22,310 yuan/ton with a basis of - 105 yuan/ton; nickel's was 122,060 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,540 yuan/ton; lead's was 17,525 yuan/ton with a basis of - 215 yuan/ton; tin's was 286,150 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,540 yuan/ton [2]. - LME Data: Copper's LME 3 - month forward closing price is not provided, with a spot premium of - 23.84 dollars/ton and an inventory of 136,350 tons (a daily decrease of 575 tons); aluminum had a spot premium of 3.28 dollars/ton and an inventory of 473,125 tons (a daily decrease of 4,550 tons); zinc had a spot premium of 212.89 dollars/ton and an inventory of 37,600 tons (a daily increase of 2,900 tons); nickel had an LME 3 - month forward closing price of 15,335 dollars/ton, a spot premium of - 205.18 dollars/ton, and an inventory of 250,854 tons (no daily change); lead had an LME 3 - month forward closing price of 2,024 dollars/ton, a spot premium of - 33.80 dollars/ton, and an inventory of 235,375 tons (a daily decrease of 4,375 tons); tin had a spot premium of 100.00 dollars/ton and an inventory of 2,750 tons (a daily increase of 30 tons) [2].