申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The latest export inspection report indicated that the U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending October 16, 2025, was higher than the market - expected range, up 45% from the previous week. Brazil's new - season soybean sowing is progressing orderly. The domestic soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to poor domestic crushing margins and subdued buying enthusiasm [2]. - The oil market: The night - session of oils showed a weak trend. The MPOA estimated a 10.77% increase in Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20, and AmSpec data showed a 2.5% month - on - month increase in palm oil exports during the same period. The expected reduction in palm oil production has not materialized, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in October has strengthened. The supply - side expectation of loosening is suppressing the short - term oil market [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8234, 9100, 9748, 2932, 2400, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 40, - 22, - 13, - 1, - 40, and 26, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.49%, - 0.24%, - 3.15%, - 0.03%, - 1.64%, and 0.29% [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, such as the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil changing from - 288 to - 290 [1]. International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4381 (ringgit/ton), 1084 (cents/bu), 51 (cents/lb), and 298 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were - 20, 42, 0, and 4, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.45%, 4.01%, 0.76%, and 1.29% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions have different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.47%, while the spot price of Dongguan soybean meal decreased by 0.67% [1]. - Basis: The current spot basis of various varieties also shows different values, such as the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 236 [1]. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil has changed from - 528 to - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 27144, 600, 7540, 42382, 4050, and 0 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate reached 36% of the expected level, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn in 2025/26 in the central - southern region reached 55% of the planned area [2]. - As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1061375 tons, down from the previous week [2].