螺纹钢：淡季讲预期，钢价关注反弹机会

Report Title - "Threaded Steel: Discussing Expectations in the Off-season, Pay Attention to Rebound Opportunities for Steel Prices; Hot-rolled Coil: Discussing Expectations in the Off-season, Pay Attention to Rebound Opportunities for Steel Prices" [1] Report Core View - In the off-season, both threaded steel and hot-rolled coil should focus on the rebound opportunities of steel prices [1] Industry News - On October 23, Steel Union's weekly data showed that the output of threaded steel increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil by 0.62 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 8.37 tons; the total inventory of threaded steel decreased by 18.94 tons, hot-rolled coil by 4.27 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 27.41 tons; the apparent demand of threaded steel was 6.26 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 11.18 tons, and the total increased by 17.32 tons [2] - In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, with a daily output of 2.4497 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.8%; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, with a daily output of 2.2017 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.2%; steel production was 124.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with a daily output of 4.1403 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.5%. From January to September, the national cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.7335 million tons; pig iron production was 646 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.3658 million tons; steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a cumulative daily output of 4.0434 million tons [3] - In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises was 15.88 million tons, a 1.21 million tons increase from the previous ten days, an 8.2% increase; a 3.51 million tons increase from the beginning of the year, a 28.4% increase; a 60,000 tons increase from the same ten days of last month, a 0.6% increase; an 1.15 million tons increase from the same ten days of last year, a 7.8% increase; a 480,000 tons decrease from the same ten days of the year before last, a 2.9% decrease [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of threaded steel is 0, and that of hot-rolled coil is 0. The value range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 indicates the most bearish, and 2 indicates the most bullish [4] Futures and Spot Market Data Futures Market | Variety | Contract | Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Change (Yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | Change in Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Threaded Steel | RB2601 | 3,100 | 47 | 1.54 | 1,696,201 | 1,953,001 | -97,544 | | Hot-rolled Coil | HC2601 | 3,299 | 47 | 1.45 | 595,934 | 1,482,730 | -18,766 | [1] Spot Market | Variety | Region | Price (Yuan/ton) | Previous Day's Price (Yuan/ton) | Change (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Threaded Steel | Shanghai | 3210 | 3200 | 10 | | | Hangzhou | 3280 | 3250 | 30 | | | Beijing | 3120 | 3100 | 20 | | | Guangzhou | 3310 | 3270 | 40 | | Hot-rolled Coil | Shanghai | 3330 | 3290 | 40 | | | Hangzhou | 3360 | 3330 | 30 | | | Tianjin | 3220 | 3200 | 20 | | | Guangzhou | 3300 | 3270 | 30 | | Tangshan Steel Billet | - | 2960 | 2930 | 30 | [1] Basis and Spread | Type | Value (Yuan/ton) | Previous Day's Value (Yuan/ton) | Change (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (RB2601) | 154 | 149 | 5 | | Basis (HC2601) | 40 | 44 | -4 | | RB2601 - RB2605 | -59 | -63 | 4 | | HC2601 - HC2605 | 13 | 15 | -2 | | HC2601 - RB2601 | 199 | 204 | -5 | | HC2605 - RB2605 | 153 | 156 | -3 | | Spot Coil-Threaded Steel Spread | 24 | -6 | 30 | [1]