Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - Finance: Bullish on the medium - to - long - term for stock indices, hold a neutral stance on treasury bonds [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Neutral for coking coal, coke, and rebar; bearish on glass [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Bullish on copper in the medium - to - long - term with a neutral short - term view; neutral on aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12][18] - Energy and Chemicals: Neutral for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; bearish on soda ash; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins [1][20][22][31] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Neutral and slightly bullish for cotton, cotton yarn, and apples; neutral for PTA and jujubes [1][35][36][37] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Bearish on live pigs and eggs; neutral and slightly bearish on corn; bullish on soybean meal rebound; neutral and slightly bullish on oils and fats with a differentiation in variety trends [1][39][44][46] Core Views - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities [1][5][7] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - Stock Indices: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term and is bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Investors are advised to buy on dips. The market is affected by factors like policy optimization, international trade talks, and Fed rate - cut expectations [5] - Treasury Bonds: Expected to oscillate slightly upwards. Influenced by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations, regulatory policies, and central bank operations [5] Black Building Materials - Double - Coking: The market is bullish with a significant upward price trend, mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream coking coal prices and short - term supply shortages [7] - Rebar: The price is expected to oscillate. With low static valuation and factors like the "15th Five - Year Plan" and improved demand, it is advisable to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: The market is expected to be weak with a tendency to fall. It is recommended to sell call options for the 01 contract due to factors such as policy expectations cooling, supply - demand imbalance, and cost - profit changes [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the short - term. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips due to supply shortages, positive trade expectations, and weakening of the US dollar [10] - Aluminum: The market is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized, and pay attention to tariff progress and market sentiment [12] - Nickel: The market is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies due to potential changes in supply and demand [16] - Tin: The market is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the operating range of the Shanghai tin 12 - contract at 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - Silver and Gold: The prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the operating ranges of the Shanghai silver 12 - contract at 10,900 - 11,700 and the Shanghai gold 12 - contract at 920 - 970 respectively [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The market is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is temporarily focused on the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain exports [20][21] - Caustic Soda: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily focused on the pressure at the 2,450 - yuan/ton level. Influenced by supply - demand relationships and macro - policies [22][23] - Styrene: The market is expected to oscillate. It is temporarily focused on the range of 6,300 - 6,700 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory [24][25] - Rubber: The market is expected to oscillate. It is temporarily focused on the support at the 15,000 - yuan/ton level. Supported by raw material prices and inventory reduction, but downstream procurement is cautious [25] - Urea: The market is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is referred to the range of 1,600 - 1,700 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, agricultural demand, and inventory changes [26][27] - Methanol: The market is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is referred to the operating range of 2,230 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and downstream demand [28][29] - Polyolefins: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. The PE and PP main contracts are recommended to pay attention to the support at 7,000 and 6,600 yuan/ton respectively, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [29][30] - Soda Ash: A bearish strategy is recommended for the 01 contract due to supply surplus and inventory accumulation [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards, influenced by factors such as global supply - demand forecasts and Sino - US trade negotiations [35] - PTA: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory accumulation [35][36] - Apples: The market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards. The price of high - quality goods remains stable, and the overall price is affected by factors such as quality and expected delivery costs [36] - Jujubes: The market is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to price changes after the new - season harvest is concentrated on the market [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: The price rebound is under pressure. A bearish strategy is recommended for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts in the medium - term. Be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [39][40] - Eggs: The price rebound is under pressure. For the 12 - contract, short on rallies if the spot price increase is limited; wait and see for the 01 contract [41][42] - Corn: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended for the main 11 - contract. Pay attention to the 2,120 - 2,150 pressure level and the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - Soybean Meal: The price is expected to rebound from a low level. For the M2601 contract, take partial profit on rallies and hold on to positions on dips. Spot enterprises can set prices on dips for the 11 - 1 month basis and sell on rallies [45][46] - Oils and Fats: The market shows a differentiation with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the spread rebound strategy between soybean and palm oils [46][50][51]
期货市场交易指引：2025年10月28日-20251028
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-10-28 02:57