玉米期货月报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The new - season corn maintains a supply - loose pattern. Although low port inventory supports prices, downstream demand lacks growth, the deep - processing industry is in continuous loss, and feed consumption is mainly rigid. Wheat substitution has effectively supplemented the market supply, but its substitution effect is expected to weaken as wheat prices approach the policy bottom and new - season corn is listed. Currently, long and short factors are intertwined, and the market is in a key game stage. In the short term, the downward trend of corn has not reversed, and it is expected to continue to test the 2100 yuan/ton support level. The listing rhythm of new - season corn should be focused on. If the decline is fully released in time and space, the market driving logic may gradually switch later. Attention should be paid to the progress of new - grain listing and the recovery of downstream demand [5][41] Summary by Directory 1. Corn Market Structure - As of the end of September, the corn index price dropped below the 2150 yuan/ton support level. It is expected to continue to decline and may even over - decline to below 2100 yuan/ton. Recently, the supply in North China has increased, and the price has been low. The rotation of state - owned grain reserves and the arrival of imported substitutes have increased market supply. Downstream enterprises have sufficient inventories, and the demand for corn replenishment from feed enterprises is suppressed. Overall, the corn index may decline further [7] - The overall structure presents a Contango structure, with 01 contract at a discount to 05 contract and 05 contract at a discount to 09 contract [8] 2. Market行情 Analysis 2.1 Corn Market Supply is Loose, Laying the Foundation for Low Prices - Supply - demand balance and cost decline: The new - season corn market shows "slightly increased supply and stable rigid demand". In 2025, the national corn output is expected to be 29,616 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. Since July 1, the import corn auction has supplemented the market, and wheat substitution has squeezed the corn consumption space. The planting cost in Northeast China has decreased, and the estimated port - collection price is around 2100 yuan/ton, close to the current futures price [11] - Reduction in import demand: In August 2025, the import of major grains decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import of corn was 88 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 78%. The decrease in imports is related to China's policies to promote corn self - sufficiency and adjust the feed structure [15] - Decrease in wheat substitution: In 2025, the wheat output increased by about 4% month - on - month. Due to weak downstream demand, wheat has a price advantage over corn, and the substitution is expected to be between 2000 - 3000 tons. As the price difference between wheat and corn narrows, the substitution will gradually decrease [18] 2.2 Downstream Demand Remains Rigid but without Increment, with Limited Boosting Effect - Pig price and capacity reduction: In the feed - breeding sector, the policy has promoted the reduction of sow inventory since July, but the process is slow. As of August 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, and the sow inventory was 40.48 million, still higher than the normal level. The pig price is below the cost, and the industry may further reduce capacity [22] - Loss in deep - processing industry: Corn consumption is mainly in feed - breeding and deep - processing. The deep - processing industry is facing continuous losses, and the profit pressure restricts the increase in the start - up rate and raw - material procurement demand [24] 2.3 Low Port Inventory Increases Price Elasticity - As of September 19, the corn inventory in northern and southern ports has decreased to a medium - low level in recent years. The decrease in northern port inventory may be due to the exhaustion of grass - roots surplus grain and the hoarding of traders, while the decrease in southern port inventory reflects the decrease in arrival volume and stable downstream picking - up. Low port inventory weakens the buffer effect, making price fluctuations more sensitive to supply and demand changes [37] 3. Market Outlook - The new - season corn maintains a supply - loose pattern. Low port inventory supports prices, but downstream demand lacks growth. Although the import of grains has decreased, wheat substitution still supplements the market. As wheat prices approach the policy bottom and new - season corn is listed, the substitution effect is expected to weaken. The market is in a key game stage. In the short term, the downward trend of corn has not reversed, and it is expected to test the 2100 yuan/ton support level. Attention should be paid to the listing rhythm of new - season corn and the recovery of downstream demand [41]