华宝期货晨报煤焦-20251028

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Short - term coal and coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations and remains at a relatively high level overall. Inventory pressure is temporarily not significant, but attention should be paid to the impact of imported coal variables on the market. Prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly and approached the previous high, with relatively intense overall fluctuations. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, and the second round of coke price hikes was implemented, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton in two rounds [2][3]. Supply Side - Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lvliang and Linfen regions were shut down due to safety reasons, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai and other areas were shut down for goaf treatment, resulting in a decline in coal production. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons compared to the previous week and 1.7 tons year - on - year [3]. - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal were 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6716 million tons, a decline of 3.8%. However, the imports in August and September were both at a high level of around 6 million tons, narrowing the year - on - year decline. The high - frequency data shows that the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port for Mongolian coal in October was 128,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to September. It is expected that Mongolian coking coal imports will decline in October, and the annual imports may be flat year - on - year [3]. Demand Side - The profit of steel mills has further shrunk, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average pig iron output has slightly decreased to 2.399 million tons. As the demand approaches the end of the year, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and the pig iron output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material side [3].