集运日报：SCFIS虽大幅上涨，但部分多头止盈离场，盘面偏弱震荡，符合日报反弹预期，不建议加仓，设置好止损。-20251028

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - SCFIS has risen significantly, but some long - position holders have taken profits and left the market, leading to a weak and volatile market, which is in line with the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - SCFIS: On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% from the previous period [3]. - SCFI: On October 24, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European line was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period [4]. - NCFI: On October 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [5]. - CCFI: On October 24, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [5]. 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone: In September, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [6]. - China: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing prosperity. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, showing that the overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities has accelerated [6]. - US: In September, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [6]. 3.3 Market Strategy - Short - term Strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [7]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [7]. - Long - term Strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [7]. 3.4 Market Conditions - On October 27, the main contract 2512 closed at 1775.0, with a decline of 2.79%, a trading volume of 27,700 lots, and an open interest of 28,000 lots, a decrease of 2254 lots from the previous day [7]. - Sino - US trade shows signs of easing, but the overall long - position sentiment has subsided. Coupled with some long - position holders taking profits and leaving the market, the market is weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [7]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7].