信部将讨论PTA业的内卷式竞争，PTA幅反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - IEA indicates that due to production growth in the Americas, the global crude oil market will be in a surplus state this year, and oil prices may decline in the coming days and weeks due to sufficient supply [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to hold a symposium on the involution - style competition in the PTA and bottle - chip industries. PTA's capacity has increased by 3.27%, and the entire industry is in a loss - making situation. The continuous strength of PTA requires a more active supply side [2] - The market is in a complex situation. Crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks, and different energy and chemical products have different trends. For example, asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil may decline under the pressure of falling crude oil prices, while low - sulfur fuel oil may follow the upward trend of crude oil [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - The crude oil market is in a state of supply surplus. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders is approaching, and the market is observing the actual reduction in Russian oil production due to US sanctions. The supply of crude oil in tankers has reached a record high since 2016, mainly due to the increasing production in the Americas [1][6] - The PTA and bottle - chip industries are facing involution - style competition. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to hold a symposium to promote the stable operation of the industry. PTA's capacity has increased, and the processing fee has dropped, with the entire industry in a loss - making state. The operation of the benzene - ethylene industry is also not optimistic [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks have increased, and the actual reduction in supply needs to be observed. Currently, the supply side is in a stage where the expected reduction in Russian oil is difficult to verify. The short - term price support is relatively stable, but it is still difficult to reverse the current surplus pattern. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [6] Asphalt - As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be under pressure to decline. The increase in OPEC+ production, the reduction of Saudi Arabia's export premium to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, combined with the market's assessment of the situation after the sharp rise in oil prices, may lead to a decline in asphalt futures prices. The supply tension has been relieved, and the high - premium driving force has weakened [7] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be under pressure to decline. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate. The demand for fuel oil is still weak, and the trend needs to pay attention to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as new sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States, and the supply and demand situation is complex. It is expected to follow the volatility of crude oil [9] PX - Driven by the rapid rise of PTA, the negotiation and price of PX have increased. The cost - side guidance is limited, and the short - term supply and demand are affected by the PTA industry. It is expected that the price will be volatile and strong in the short term [11] PTA - The anti - involution policy has affected the PTA industry. The reduction in production is a variable, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation. The price has been boosted by the industry's anti - involution sentiment, but the basis is still weak. It is expected that the price will remain warm in the short term [12][13] Short - Fiber - Pay attention to the fermentation of the upstream sentiment. The cost side is supported by the rise of PTA. The short - fiber itself has no inventory pressure. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate warmly with the raw materials [21][22] Bottle - Chip - The anti - involution policy has affected the polyester industry. The price of polyester bottle - chips has been driven up by the rise of upstream raw materials. The market transaction is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the raw materials [23] Pure Benzene - The driving force for the rise is insufficient, and it is expected to operate weakly and volatile. The price of naphtha is strong, and the demand for pure benzene is affected by factors such as the maintenance and production reduction of benzene - ethylene devices [14][15] Benzene - Ethylene - It is expected to operate weakly and volatile. Although it has rebounded recently, the rebound strength is weak, affected by factors such as new device production and weak downstream follow - up. The profit is at a low level, and the idea of shorting on the rebound remains unchanged [16][17] Ethylene Glycol - Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamental pressure is large and the elasticity is limited. The supply is gradually recovering to a high level, and the port inventory is difficult to reduce in the short term. It is expected to maintain a low - level range arrangement [18][19] Methanol - With the rebound of olefins, methanol is expected to fluctuate widely. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, but considering the possible impact of Iran in winter, there is still value in going long at a low level [25][26] Urea - The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is expected to be under continuous pressure. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [26][27] Plastic - As oil prices rebound, but the fundamental support is limited, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply - side support is limited, and the profit support is also limited [29] PP - With a slight increase in maintenance, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The fundamental support is still limited, and attention should be paid to the change and sustainability of maintenance [30] PL - The price difference with PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and it is expected to fluctuate. The market trading atmosphere has improved, and the volatility has increased [31] PVC - With low valuation and weak expectations, it is expected to operate volatile. The macro - level Sino - US tariff issue and the micro - level supply - demand situation affect the price. The idea of shorting on the rebound remains unchanged [32] Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. The long - term supply and demand situation is complex, and it is expected to enter a wide - range fluctuation, with the idea of shorting on the rebound [32][33] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on the inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, which can help investors understand the market trends and price relationships of different varieties [34][35][37] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data is not fully presented, it is expected to provide more detailed information on the basis and spreads of chemical products such as methanol, urea, and benzene - ethylene, which is helpful for in - depth analysis of the market [38][51][63] 4. Index Situation - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of commodities have different trends. The energy index has a certain increase on October 27, 2025, but shows different trends in different time periods [281][282]