中辉黑色观点-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that most futures varieties in the steel and related industries are expected to show a short - term bullish trend but with certain risks and limitations. For example, although there are some positive factors such as policy support and demand recovery, there are also issues like high inventory and weak overall supply - demand balance [1] Summary by Variety Steel Products 1. Rebar - Variety View: Weekly production and apparent demand have both increased, and inventory continues to decline. However, both supply and demand are lower than last year, inventory is slightly high, and the inventory reduction speed is average. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [4] - Operation Suggestion: Driven by the new regulations on capacity replacement in the steel industry and regional production control, it may run with a short - term volatile and slightly stronger trend [5] 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - Variety View: Apparent demand has increased, production has remained flat with a slight increase, and inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than in previous years [4] - Operation Suggestion: Although the molten iron output is still high and the overall steel supply is at a high level, it may run with a short - term phased stronger trend due to policy support [5] Iron Ore - Variety View: Molten iron output has decreased again, and steel mills and ports have accumulated inventory. Overseas ore shipments have increased at a high level, but arrivals have significantly decreased. Steel enterprises' profits have been rapidly compressed, and the static fundamentals are moderately weak. However, the easing of Sino - US relations has released positive macro - level signals [8] - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish, with short - term ore prices expected to run with a volatile and slightly stronger trend [9] Coke - Variety View: The second round of price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations for a third - round increase. The game between coke producers and steel mills is obvious. Recently, coke producers' profits have decreased, and the scope of cost inversion has expanded. Steel mills' inventory levels are low, and some are still increasing inventory. Coke supply and demand are relatively balanced [11] - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish, expected to follow coking coal and run within a certain range in the short term [12] Coking Coal - Variety View: Coal mine production has decreased month - on - month. The supply side has been greatly affected by safety inspections and over - production verifications recently. The absolute level of molten iron output is high, ensuring raw material demand. Supply and demand are relatively balanced with few contradictions. There are occasional disturbances on the origin supply side, supporting the market performance, but there is some pressure for short - term price increases [15] - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish, and be cautious about chasing long positions [16] Ferroalloys 1. Silicomanganese - Variety View: The production area supply level is still at a high level compared to the same period. After the release of the new round of replenishment demand in downstream steel procurement, the difficulty of inventory reduction in the production area has further increased [19] - Operation Suggestion: In the short term, the cost side provides some support for prices, but the upward driving force is still relatively limited. Be cautious about chasing long positions [20] 2. Ferrosilicon - Variety View: Both supply and demand have weakened. Enterprise inventory has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts has continued to decline. Pay attention to the situation of re - warehousing after cancellation [19] - Operation Suggestion: Expected to follow coal prices and run within a certain range in the short term. Be cautious about chasing long positions [20]