光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251028

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures and spot markets are expected to have a phased rebound, but over - bullish sentiment is not recommended. The price increase suppresses the purchasing willingness of the middle and lower reaches, and the fundamental driving force is still limited. Attention should be paid to demand follow - up, India tender results, export policy dynamics, macro - sentiment, and the overall trend of the commodity market [2]. - The supply - demand side of soda ash has insufficient driving force, but the futures price may follow the macro - sentiment to warm up periodically. The upside space is restricted by the fundamental pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, the overall trend of the commodity market, and changes in the downstream production capacity of soda ash [2]. - The demand sentiment of glass has slightly improved but with limited strength. The futures market has obvious bottom characteristics and may rise periodically following the macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the macro - policy and fundamentals can resonate periodically, as well as the spot trading situation of glass and the overall trend of the commodity market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views Urea - On Monday, the urea futures price fluctuated widely, with the main 01 contract closing at 1640 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot market continued to recover, with prices in Shandong and Henan rising to 1610 yuan/ton and 1590 yuan/ton respectively. The daily output of the industry was 18.88 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous day. The demand sentiment in some areas continued to warm up, but there was still obvious differentiation between regions. The price increase suppressed the purchasing willingness of the middle and lower reaches, and the market was mainly in a phased rebound [2]. Soda Ash - On Monday, the soda ash futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main 01 contract closing at 1246 yuan/ton, a 1.38% increase. The industry's operating rate dropped to 85.53%. The demand side had no obvious trend, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly on Monday. The supply - demand side had insufficient driving force, but the futures price might follow the macro - sentiment to warm up periodically [2]. Glass - On Monday, the glass futures price fluctuated firmly, with the main 01 contract closing at 1095 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease. The spot market continued to weaken. The supply level had no obvious change, and the spot trading slightly recovered. The demand sentiment improved slightly, and the futures market might rise periodically following the macro - sentiment [2]. Market Information Urea - On October 27, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 5288, a decrease of 119 from the previous day, with 296 valid forecasts. The daily output of the industry was 18.88 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous day and 0.14 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 80.71%, a decrease of 3.32 percentage points from the same period last year. The spot prices in various regions showed an upward trend [5]. Soda Ash and Glass - On October 27, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 8745, a decrease of 1189 from the previous day, with 819 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 447, a decrease of 8 from the previous day. The spot prices of soda ash in various regions were mostly stable. The industry's operating rate was 85.53%, a decrease from the previous day. The average price of the float glass market was 1167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the daily output was 16.13 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7][8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, as well as the price difference between different contracts and the price difference between different varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [10][12][14][17][18][19]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [23]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won many honors [23]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferro - alloy [23].