Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for selected stocks including Xincheng Holdings, Greentown China, and China Jinmao [6] Core Views - The real estate industry shows signs of bottoming out in September 2025, with structural differentiation evident. Key indicators such as new construction, completion, sales area, and sales revenue have improved on a month-over-month basis compared to the average levels from 2020 to 2024, despite a year-on-year decline in real estate development investment [1][12][15] - The downward pressure on real estate development investment is attributed to three main factors: a continuous reduction in construction scale, a sluggish land market, and a tight financing environment [2][19][30] - Future real estate development investment is expected to stabilize gradually, with a structural recovery process. The recovery will be led by third and fourth-tier cities due to lower land cost ratios and stable price differentials, while first and second-tier cities will lag behind [3][32] Summary by Sections 1. September Real Estate Data Performance - The overall data for the real estate industry in September 2025 indicates a continued decline, but with some month-over-month improvements. Key metrics such as new construction and completion areas have shown less severe year-on-year declines compared to previous months [1][12][15] 2. Increased Downward Pressure on Real Estate Investment - The report identifies that the primary reasons for the increased downward pressure on real estate development investment include a shrinking construction scale, a depressed land market, and a constrained financing environment. The total funding sources for real estate development decreased by 13.4% year-on-year [2][19][30] 3. Future of Real Estate Development Investment - The outlook for real estate development investment suggests a gradual stabilization, with a focus on structural characteristics. The report highlights that the recovery will be more pronounced in lower-tier cities, while state-owned enterprises are expected to maintain their land acquisition strength due to better financing capabilities [3][30][32]
周专题:地产开发投资何去何从?