光大期货农产品日报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Downward trend with a long - term bearish outlook [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways movement [1] - Oils: Upward trend with a sideways trading strategy [1] - Eggs: Slightly bullish with a sideways bias [1] - Hogs: Sideways movement [2] Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are pressured by increased new - grain supply in the production areas, and the futures price is expected to decline in the long term [1] - Soybean meal prices are influenced by the expectation of China's potential purchase of US soybeans and are expected to move sideways [1] - Oil prices are affected by the weakness of the surrounding market and the bearish palm oil data in the producing areas, with a sideways trading strategy [1] - Egg prices are supported by the rising spot prices and may continue to rebound in the short term, but there is pressure on the upside [1] - Hog prices are supported by the increased fattening enthusiasm in the Northeast and are expected to stop falling and rise in the fourth quarter [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - Corn: The corn main contract 2601 opened slightly lower on Monday and then the decline widened. New - grain supply increased in the production areas, and the price in the North Port was under pressure. The price in the Northeast adjusted slightly, and the price in North China was generally stable with some narrow - range adjustments. Technically, the price was expected to decline in the long term, with short - term support at 2100 [1] - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose to a six - month high on Monday due to the hope of China's resumption of US soybean purchases. Domestic protein meal mainly moved sideways. The market was waiting for the results of the super - macro week, especially whether China would resume purchasing US soybeans [1] - Oils: BMD palm oil fell for the second consecutive day on Monday, hitting a four - week low. High - frequency data showed a slight decrease in the export of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25. Domestic oils mainly moved sideways, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil rising slightly and palm oil falling slightly. The inventory was high, and the basis was weak [1] - Eggs: Egg futures continued to rebound on Monday, with the main contract 2512 rising 1.56%. The spot price increased, and the futures price rebounded at a low level. There was an optimistic expectation for future supply improvement, but there was still pressure on the upside [1] - Hogs: The main hog contract 2601 gapped up on Monday. The spot price in the production and sales areas was strong. In the Northeast, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening was high over the weekend, and the supply of medium and large hogs was tight. The price was expected to stop falling and rise in the fourth quarter [2] Market Information - From October 1 - 25, 2025, the yield, oil extraction rate, and production of Malaysian palm oil increased compared with the same period last month according to SPPOMA data. Different institutions had different data on the export volume of Malaysian palm oil during this period, with an increase of 23.8% according to SGS and a decrease of 0.27% according to Amspec [3] - On October 27, Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Australian Prime Minister Albanese in Kuala Lumpur, expressing the willingness to strengthen economic cooperation and explore the review and upgrade of the free - trade agreement [3] Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs [5][6][10][14] - Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs [13][16][17][22] Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [26] - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of experience in the futures industry and many honors [26] - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant research achievements [26]