Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.7% to 64.65 cents/pound on Monday, and CF601 rose 0.11% to 13,565 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 5,622 lots to 585,300 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,565 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The macro - level is the focus recently, with the weakening of the U.S. dollar index and the continuous decline of the gold price. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25BP in October, and positive news from Sino - U.S. trade consultations support the U.S. cotton price. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, data is lacking. In the domestic market, it is the peak supply season of new cotton, with large supply pressure limiting the upside of cotton prices. The demand is relatively stable. As time passes, the supply pressure will ease, and the supply - demand pattern will reverse, making the upward drive of cotton futures prices stronger. In the short term, it should be treated as a firm oscillation. [1] - Sugar: As of September 30, India's cumulative monsoon rainfall was 937.2 mm, 8% higher than the long - term average, the wettest in the past five years. The NFCSF expects India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to reach 34.9 million tons, a 19% year - on - year increase. The spot prices of sugar in some regions decreased. Due to concerns about sufficient supply, the raw sugar price broke through the support level and fell to a five - year low. The domestic futures price is supported by cost and hovers above 5,400 yuan/ton. It should be treated with an oscillation mindset, and selling call options can be considered. [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 10, down 10; the main basis was 1,268, up 5. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,690 yuan/ton, up 34, and the national spot price was 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30. [2] - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45, down 4; the main basis was 305, up 1. The spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were both 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 2. Market Information - Cotton: On October 27, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,488, down 15 from the previous trading day, with 769 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.3, down 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.9, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.8, up 0.1. [3] - Sugar: On October 27, the spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,795, down 390 from the previous trading day, with 586 valid forecasts. [3][4] 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides various charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts of their main contracts, showing historical data trends from 2021 - 2025. [6][14]
光大期货软商品日报-20251028
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-10-28 05:12