中美经贸谈判追踪：战术性缓和，结构性博弈难改

Group 1: Negotiation Overview - The fifth round of US-China trade talks took place in Kuala Lumpur on October 25-26, focusing on tariffs, export controls, rare earths, and digital economy, with preliminary consensus reached[2] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese products has diminished, and China is expected to resume soybean purchases and delay rare earth export controls for one year[3] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The negotiations signal a pragmatic approach from both sides, aiming for a balance between core interests and external stability, indicating a potential turning point in US-China trade relations[3] - China’s potential resumption of soybean purchases aligns with seasonal import peaks, with current purchases at only one-third of last year's levels as of September[7] - The US is showing a willingness to ease tensions by delaying extreme measures and extending the tariff suspension period, with a focus on a "fentanyl tariff for soybean purchases" as a negotiation balance point[10] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term improvements, the long-term structural conflicts in US-China relations remain unchanged, with technology continuing to be a core issue[14] - The recent negotiations may boost market risk appetite and support exports, providing a buffer for China's economic transition amid ongoing trade tensions[14]