工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On the 27th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2601 closing at 8,965 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.17%, and the open interest increasing by 15,179 lots to 202,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,523 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 245 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2601 closing at 54,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.82%, and the open interest decreasing by 24,322 lots to 106,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 310 yuan/ton. With production cuts in the southwest and silicon factories holding back supply and raising prices, along with rising costs of silicon coal and electricity prices, the operating center of industrial silicon has shifted upward. Due to the quota arrangement by the industry association, production cuts in silicon wafers after November are basically certain. Although the weekly production schedule of silicon wafers has increased significantly, the current high output is more of a stage of concentrated pre - quota production by enterprises and cannot be confirmed as a signal of actual demand improvement. The last week of October may be the sprint stage for industrial production, and the concentrated inventory - building - driven recovery may not be sustainable. However, as downstream purchases have exceeded upstream output for the first time, there is some short - term support for the bottom of polysilicon. Attention should be paid to industrial production schedules and industry stockpiling dynamics [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,920 yuan/ton on October 24th to 8,965 yuan/ton on the 27th, a rise of 45 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 280 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 142 to 48,185, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 8,935 tons to 241,635 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 400 tons to 445,500 tons [4] - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 52,305 yuan/ton on October 24th to 54,500 yuan/ton on the 27th, a rise of 2,195 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 2,100 yuan/ton to 310 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 180 to 9,240, and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 10,000 tons to 273,000 tons [4] - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,200 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11] 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][18][20] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [24][28] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [32][34][39]