黑色商品日报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to have a narrow - range consolidation. The supply of steel may decrease in the short - term due to environmental protection requirements, and the inventory of building materials and hot - rolled coils has decreased, indicating an improved supply - demand situation [1]. - The iron ore market is likely to show a weak oscillation. The global shipment volume has increased, while the iron - water output has decreased, and the inventory pressure of rebar remains [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The supply of coking coal is limited due to environmental protection and safety measures, and the demand for coking coal has increased. For coke, the second - round price increase has been implemented, but the profit improvement is less than expected, and the demand is affected by environmental protection and limited terminal demand [1]. - The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets are expected to oscillate. For manganese - silicon, the supply is difficult to significantly decrease, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. For silicon - iron, the cost has slightly increased, the demand is limited, and the inventory is still high [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price rose by 1.77% to 3100 yuan/ton, and the spot price also increased. The inventory of building materials and hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.47% and 1.05% respectively. The new regulations on steel - industry capacity replacement and the environmental - protection - based production limit in Tangshan may affect the supply [1]. - Iron Ore: The futures price of iron ore rose by 2% to 786.5 yuan/ton. The Australian shipment was stable, and the Brazilian shipment increased. The iron - water output decreased by 1.05 tons to 239.9 tons [1]. - Coking Coal: The futures price of coking coal rose by 1.2% to 1263.5 yuan/ton. The supply was restricted by environmental protection and safety measures, and the demand increased due to the second - round price increase of coke [1]. - Coke: The futures price of coke rose by 1.25% to 1779.5 yuan/ton. The second - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was fully implemented, but the profit improvement was less than expected due to the high cost of coking coal [1]. - Manganese - Silicon: The futures price of manganese - silicon rose by 0.24% to 5802 yuan/ton. The supply was difficult to significantly decrease, and the demand was weak with high inventory [1]. - Silicon - Iron: The futures price of silicon - iron rose by 0.36% to 5564 yuan/ton. The cost increased slightly, the demand was limited, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained high [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: For example, the 1 - 5 - month spread of rebar was - 59.0, with a 4.0 increase; the 1 - 5 - month spread of hot - rolled coils was - 13.0, with a 2.0 increase [4]. - Basis: The basis of the 01 contract of rebar was 110.0, with a - 44.0 decrease; the basis of the 01 contract of hot - rolled coils was 31.0, with a - 9.0 decrease [4]. - Spot Price: The Shanghai spot price of rebar was 3210.0, with a 10.0 increase; the Shanghai spot price of hot - rolled coils was 3330.0, with a 40.0 increase [4]. - Profit and Spread: The rebar's on - disk profit was - 130.5, with a 17.4 increase; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 199.0, with a - 5.0 decrease [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main - Contract Price: The report presents the historical closing - price trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - Main - Contract Basis: It shows the historical basis trends of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - Inter - Period Contract Spread: The report shows the historical spread trends of different - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - Inter - Variety Contract Spread: It presents the historical spread trends of cross - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc [41][42][43][45]. - Rebar Profit: The report shows the historical profit trends of rebar's on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures, is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [52]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, has experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [53].