固收点评：央行购债，值多少BP？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of central bank bond purchases is mainly due to the objective need for base - money injection, and factors such as bond market supply - demand and yield curve shape no longer pose major constraints [2][17]. - After the resumption of bond purchases, the bond market curve may initially show a flattening trend, but in the future, it may tend to steepen, and attention should be paid to potential adjustment pressures after the positive news is realized [4][30]. - If there is no further easing expectation, the current 5BP pricing of the 10 - year active treasury bond may be relatively sufficient [4][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Year: Expectations' Repeated Fluctuations and Disappointments - In 2024 from August to December, the central bank's cumulative net bond - buying scale was 100 billion yuan. In January 2025, it announced a phased suspension of bond purchases in the open market [9]. - Reasons for the suspension in early 2025 include controllable government bond supply pressure, the availability of alternative liquidity management tools, and the need to avoid excessive market consensus expectations and potential interest - rate risks [9]. - From the perspective of curve regulation, the operation space was relatively limited at that time. Net selling of bonds to tighten liquidity was unlikely, and achieving a balance in "buying short and selling long" was restricted by the central bank's long - term bond holdings [10]. - Market expectations for the resumption of bond purchases have repeatedly fermented since June, mainly due to the need to improve the monetary policy toolbox, the market's expectation during the bond market adjustment, and the large - scale banks' increased short - term bond purchases [14][15]. 3.2 Reasons for Resuming Bond Purchases - The resumption is mainly due to the objective need for base - money injection. In the fourth quarter, the maturity scale of medium - and long - term liquidity is high, and there is also potential demand for liquidity, such as high - interest time - deposit maturities and the potential for new policy - based financial instruments to drive credit [17]. - Bond supply scale and the desired interest - rate level are not the main considerations for resuming bond purchases. Currently, government bond supply is nearing the end, and the bond market has previously faced interest - rate increases without resuming bond purchases [23]. - The weakening of bond demand, as reflected by the widening of the primary - secondary market spread of 30 - year treasury bonds since July, provides a logical basis for resuming bond purchases [3][27]. - In terms of the form of bond - buying operations, the scale may be more cautiously controlled this year, "buying short" may dominate, and "selling long" may not necessarily occur [3][29]. 3.3 Bond Market Pricing - Logically, bond purchases will benefit short - term bonds and steepen the curve. However, if large - scale banks have already held a large amount of short - term bonds and reduce their secondary - market replenishment, the impact on the curve may converge [4][30]. - On October 27, the curve flattened, which may indicate that the bond market's strength was driven by the restoration of buying confidence. Resuming bond purchases does not necessarily mean a prelude to reserve - requirement ratio cuts or interest - rate cuts [4][30]. - If there is no further easing expectation, the current 5BP pricing of the 10 - year active treasury bond may be relatively sufficient. In the future, the curve may steepen, and attention should be paid to potential adjustment pressures [4][31].