2025年9月美国CPI数据点评：美国通胀叙事进一步弱化

Inflation Data Summary - In September 2025, the U.S. CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 3.1% and up from the previous value of 2.9%[7] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, lower than the expected 0.4%[7] - Core CPI also recorded a year-on-year increase of 3%, matching the market expectation but down from the previous 3.1%[7] Core Inflation Insights - Core goods inflation remained stable at 1.5%, primarily driven by imported goods, with furniture and household items seeing a slight increase to 3%[7] - Core services inflation showed a downward trend, with rent for primary residences decreasing from 3.5% to 3.4% year-on-year[7] - The overall trend indicates a short-term characteristic of rising goods prices and falling service prices, with manageable overall price increases[7] Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights risks of a hard landing for the U.S. economy and a significant rebound in inflation, which could affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[4] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which is expected to continue to suppress consumer confidence and core inflation trends[7] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to focus on employment performance, with a projected target interest rate of 3.6% by the end of 2025, allowing for two more 25 basis point cuts[7]