Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices were slightly stronger. The spot import window for refined copper in China remained closed. Trump extended the deadline for the US - Mexico trade, security, and immigration agreement and did not restart the US - Canada negotiation for "some time." The US also signed trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and reached framework agreements with Thailand and Vietnam. China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery. LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons to 135,975 tons, Comex copper decreased by 200 tons to 315,468 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 321 tons to 35,392 tons, and BC copper decreased by 1,831 tons to 11,059 tons [1]. - High copper prices led to a decline in downstream orders, affecting mid - end processing and slowing down spot purchases. The easing of US - China trade tariffs increased overseas risk appetite. Market attention is on next year's economic outlook. With geopolitical and trade improvements and the potential impact of the Indonesian mine accident, copper supply - demand may be in a tight balance, and ICSG predicts a shortage in 2026. However, there is a divergence as China's high copper demand in the first three quarters may lead to less demand pressure in the fourth quarter [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated stronger with AO2601 closing at 2,848 yuan/ton, a 0.81% increase and a position increase of 10,797 lots to 383,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weaker with AL2512 closing at 21,255 yuan/ton, a 0.02% decrease and a position decrease of 6,873 lots to 304,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weaker. The SMM alumina price dropped, and the aluminum ingot spot discount widened. Aluminum rod and alloy processing fees showed mixed trends. Alumina plant profits were compressed, and high - cost capacity had occasional production cuts. Overseas supply disruptions and increased domestic molten aluminum supply led to a reduction in aluminum ingot supply and smooth de - stocking, driving up aluminum prices. Market focus is on the Fed's end - of - month interest rate decision and US - China tariff negotiations [2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.07% to 15,335 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.87% to 121,260 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 384 tons to 251,238 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,970 tons to 29,780 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was 400 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were stable. In the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain, nickel - iron prices decreased, and stainless steel inventory slightly declined with weak terminal demand. In the new energy industry chain, the discount coefficient rose slightly, and ternary material demand increased month - on - month, but the production plan for ternary precursors in October decreased. High LME inventory pressured the market, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1,805 yuan/ton, 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread in Guangdong widened by 770 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods also increased [4]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 5,448 tons week - on - week, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 10,000 tons to 274,000 tons [4]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of recycled refined lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 5,368 tons week - on - week [4]. Aluminum - Market prices: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference narrowed. The alumina FOB price increased, and the price of Shandong alumina decreased slightly [5]. - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 3,860 tons week - on - week, while electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 626,000 tons, and alumina social inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 108,000 tons [5]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of imported nickel - Wuxi spread widened by 50 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the prices of new energy - related products such as nickel sulfate decreased [5]. - Inventory: Nickel inventory increased by 1,656 tons week - on - week, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 7 tons [5]. Zinc - Market prices: The主力结算 price increased slightly by 0.1%, and the prices of zinc alloys increased [7]. - Inventory: Total inventory increased by 793 tons week - on - week, and social inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 164,700 tons [7]. Tin - Market prices: The主力结算 price increased by 0.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1% [7]. - Inventory: Total inventory increased by 75 tons week - on - week [7]. Chart Analysis Spot Premium - Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][15]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21]. LME Inventory - Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. Social Inventory - Charts display the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. Smelting Profit - Charts present the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][45][47]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published many professional articles. His team has won multiple awards [50]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].
有色商品日报-20251028
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-10-28 05:20