光大期货碳酸锂日报-20251028

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On October 27, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 2.53% to 81,900 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 76,550 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 74,300 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 500 yuan/ton to 74,180 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 960 tons to 27,739 tons [3]. - Supply is expected to increase overall on a month-on-month basis. Weekly production increased by 242 tons to 21,308 tons. Demand also increased, with weekly ternary material production rising by 519 tons to 17,766 tons and weekly lithium iron phosphate production increasing by 1,264 tons to 86,303 tons. Weekly inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons, and the total inventory turnover days significantly declined [3]. - Weekly supply increased slightly on a month-on-month basis, while inventory continued to be rapidly depleted. The total inventory days dropped to around 32 days, close to the lowest level in the past three years. With the improvement of macro - sentiment, repeated disturbances in supply - side news, peak demand season, continuous depletion of social and warehouse receipt inventories, and firm lithium ore prices, the price support is gradually strengthened, and the bottom price is lifted. In the short term, the price may remain strong, but cautious optimism is needed as there are still expectations of project restarts [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 81,900 yuan/ton, up 2,380 yuan from October 24; the closing price of the continuous contract was 81,120 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 906 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,220 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 76,550 yuan/ton, up 1,150 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 74,180 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan [5]. - Other Products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 97,500 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan; the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.498 yuan/Wh, up 0.005 yuan [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide price from 2024 to 2025 [11][14] 3.3 Spreads - Charts present the spreads such as the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2025 [17][18] 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [24][27] 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][33] 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from March to October 2025 [37][39] 3.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [41][42]