锂电新能源产业链日度策略-20251028

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The post - holiday restocking enthusiasm of downstream industries exceeded market expectations, resonating with macro - level positives and amplifying market fluctuations. However, from a seasonal perspective, the demand growth rate of lithium carbonate may decline in the fourth quarter. The short - term price increase of lithium carbonate lacks strong sustainability. It is advisable to adopt a bearish approach on rallies. Upstream and downstream enterprises should consider futures and options selling hedging opportunities according to their risk management needs [4][5]. - The price of lithium hydroxide stopped falling and rebounded last week. With increasing demand, some lithium salt plants slightly increased production. Due to tight inventory and more提货量 from downstream and battery cell factories, lithium salt plants were reluctant to sell, and the market price is expected to recover following lithium carbonate [6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Recommended Strategies for Lithium - Ion New Energy - Futures and Options Unilateral Strategies - For the lithium carbonate 01 futures contract, with strong supply and demand and continued spot market enthusiasm but potential future demand decline, it is expected to weaken in a volatile manner. Upstream enterprises should seize opportunities to sell and hedge on rallies. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the resistance level is 82,000 - 83,000 [12]. - For the lithium carbonate 01 futures options, although the market sentiment is good, the upside space is limited. Selling call options at prices above 83,000 on the 01 contract is a strategy worthy of attention [12]. - Arbitrage Strategies - Buying spot and selling the 03 contract is recommended. The active period of the 03 contract falls in the off - season of demand, making it suitable as a short - position for cash - and - carry arbitrage [12]. Second Part: Changes in Spot and Futures Prices - Lithium Carbonate Futures Price Changes - The closing price of the lithium carbonate 1 - month contract was 81,900, with a daily increase of 2.99%. The trading volume was 514,455, the open interest was 483,478, the open interest increased by 52,304 compared to the previous day, and the number of warehouse receipts was 27,739 [13]. - Changes in Spot Prices of the Lithium - Ion Industry Chain - Relevant charts such as the latest spot price overview of the lithium - ion new energy industry chain, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate are presented, sourced from SMM and Fangzheng Futures Research Institute [13][14]. Third Part: Fundamental Situation of the Lithium - Ion Industry Chain - Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - In terms of supply, last week's lithium carbonate output was 21,308 tons, an increase of 242 tons from the previous week, reaching a new weekly high. New production lines were put into operation at the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total output in October is expected to continue to grow. The total sample inventory was 130,366 tons, a decrease of 2,292 tons from the previous week, maintaining a fast de - stocking trend. The apparent weekly demand was 23,600 tons, also reaching a new high, and the inventory - to - use days dropped below 40 [4]. - Data of Directly Related Downstream Products - Charts related to the production capacity and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, the monthly operating rate of SMM ternary materials, and the monthly output of lithium hexafluorophosphate are presented, sourced from SMM and other institutions [18][20].