中原期货晨会纪要-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows positive signs, with industrial enterprise profits growing and social logistics costs decreasing. The market sentiment is generally optimistic, but there are still uncertainties such as potential policy changes and external risks [8][9] - Different commodity futures have different trends. Some are in a state of shock, some are rising, and some are falling, which are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonality, and macro - environment [6][12][13] - The A - share market is showing a strong performance, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased, which will have an impact on the global market. However, there are still risks and uncertainties in the market [17][18][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chemical Industry - Most chemical products' prices fluctuated on October 28, 2025. For example, PTA had a significant increase of 2.213%, while asphalt decreased by 0.637% [6] Agricultural Products - For peanuts, the supply is increasing but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 7700 - 7900 yuan/ton. For sugar, the supply is abundant and the demand is in the off - season, with the price likely to continue to oscillate. For corn, the new grain pressure is significant, and the price has broken through the support level [12] Energy and Chemicals - Urea prices are showing a phased rebound, but the supply increase and high inventory may limit the upward space. For烧碱, the market expectation is weak. For double - coking (coke and coking coal), there is support under the macro - favorable sentiment, but the upward space may be restricted by steel mill production cuts [13][14] Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum prices are running at a high level, supported by macro and supply - demand factors. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its contract is running weakly. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are rising, and the alloy market is in a wide - range shock [15][16] Option Finance - On October 27, the A - share market was strong, and the three major stock index futures showed different trends. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can consider buying straddle or wide - straddle strategies [17][18][20]