HTSC·2025-10-28 05:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [7] Core Views - Anta and FILA brands achieved low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, while other brands saw a significant increase of 45-50% in revenue, indicating resilience amid industry slowdowns and intensified promotions [1][2] - The company is expected to continue its strategy of maintaining healthy inventory levels and optimizing its product structure around high-growth segments such as running, outdoor, and tennis [1][2] - The report anticipates that the adjustments in the e-commerce organizational structure will gradually dissipate, and FILA will focus on enhancing its tennis product line and channel upgrades [1][2] Summary by Sections Anta Brand Performance - In Q3 2025, Anta's brand revenue showed low single-digit growth, with expectations for both offline and online channels to achieve low single-digit and high single-digit growth respectively [2] - The offline discount rate is approximately 71%, while the online discount rate is around 50%, with inventory turnover slightly above 5 months, indicating a healthy range [2] FILA Brand Performance - FILA's brand revenue also experienced low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, with strong resilience in e-commerce expected to yield high single-digit growth [3] - The brand has solidified its position in tennis by renewing its sponsorship of the China Open and enhancing customer experience through new store formats [3] Other Brands Performance - Other brands within the group saw a revenue increase of 45-50% in Q3 2025, with specific brands like Descente and KOLON expected to grow by approximately 30% and 70% respectively [4] - The growth is attributed to high-end functional products and differentiated retail experiences, with a focus on outdoor activities and retail channel upgrades [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 down by 3.8%, 3.6%, and 4.0% to RMB 130.3 billion, RMB 146.3 billion, and RMB 163.0 billion respectively [5] - The target price is adjusted to HKD 115.24, maintaining a target PE of 23.2x for 2025, reflecting the company's multi-brand and retail operational advantages [5]