集运日报：SCFIS虽大幅上涨但部分多头止盈离场盘面偏弱震荡符合日报反弹预期不建议加仓设置好止损-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - SCFIS has risen significantly, but some long - position holders have taken profits and left the market, leading to a weak and volatile market, which is in line with the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to add positions, and stop - losses should be set. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see. - In the short - term, risk - preference investors are advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500; in the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the correction to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction. - In the context of the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Shipping Indexes - SCFIS: On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% from the previous period [3]. - SCFI: On October 24, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European line was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period [4]. - NCFI: On October 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [5]. - CCFI: On October 24, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [5]. b. Economic Data of Different Regions - Eurozone: In September, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [6]. - China: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [6]. - US: In September, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [6]. c. Contract Information - On October 27, the main contract 2512 closed at 1775.0, with a decline of 2.79%, a trading volume of 27,700 lots, and an open interest of 28,000 lots, a decrease of 2254 lots from the previous day [7]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [7].