Group 1: Economic Context and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" coincides with the timeline set by the Third Plenary Session to complete comprehensive reform tasks by 2029, indicating a critical period for China's modernization and reform efforts[2] - The external environment poses significant challenges, with increased geopolitical tensions and intensified competition, particularly in the tech sector between China and the US[4] - The overall judgment for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period indicates a mix of strategic opportunities and risks, with rising uncertainties and instability in the global landscape[4] Group 2: Domestic Market and Innovation - Building a strong domestic market is essential, leveraging China's large-scale market advantages to stimulate internal demand and reduce reliance on macroeconomic policies[9] - The plan emphasizes the need for high-level technological self-reliance, aiming to overcome bottlenecks and enhance competitive advantages in international markets[15] - The government aims to expand domestic demand through various measures, including promoting consumption and investment, with a focus on improving living standards and addressing structural issues[11] Group 3: Economic Performance Indicators - China's goods exports are projected to average 14.43% of the global market share from 2021 to 2025, an increase of 1.16 percentage points compared to the previous five-year period[6] - The net export of goods and services is expected to contribute an average of 0.91 percentage points to economic growth during the same period, with a contribution rate of 16.34%, up by 0.83 and 11.10 percentage points respectively from the previous period[6] - In the first three quarters of 2023, China's economic growth reached 5.2%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 4.8%, despite ongoing challenges in domestic demand and low inflation[9]
点评报告：“十五五”也是中国改革创新发展的决胜之期
Bank of China Securities·2025-10-28 06:07