工业硅期货周报-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - From October 20 - 24, 2025, the main contract of industrial silicon, si2601, closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton or 1.36% from the previous week. The trading volume was 709,000 lots, and the open interest was 186,000 lots [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Price: The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly within the range during the week. As of Friday's close, the main contract (si2601) rose 120 yuan/ton to 8,920 yuan/ton, a 1.36% increase, with a high of 9,090 yuan/ton and a low of 8,765 yuan/ton, and an open interest of 186,000 lots [3] - Variety Market: Among the weekly quotes of industrial silicon futures, the contract price of industrial silicon (si2610) was the highest, and that of industrial silicon (si2511) was the lowest [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Market Condition: From October 20 - 24, 2025, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stagnant, with the center staying at a low level. On October 23, SMM's East - China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was at 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; 441 silicon was at 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; 421 silicon was at 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; 3303 silicon was at 10,400 - 10,600 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week [5] - Registered Warehouse Receipts: According to the data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the registered warehouse receipts of industrial silicon this week were 48,327 lots, a decrease of 1,787 lots from last week. The short - term market was in a wait - and - see equilibrium state [5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - Latest News: In terms of market transactions, there were some silicon powder orders in the north during the week, and the transaction price decreased compared with the previous round. Other downstream users had strong price - pressing sentiment, and the market was dominated by low - price transactions [6] - Supply Side: The weekly output of industrial silicon increased slightly on a week - on - week basis. Near the end of October, most silicon plants in the southwest planned to gradually reduce production or stop production. Therefore, the output of industrial silicon next week is expected to change little on a week - on - week basis, and it will show a downward trend in November [6] - Demand Side: The weekly output of polysilicon decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, reducing the consumption of industrial silicon. There were some silicon powder orders released in the northern region during the week, and the price of some concluded powder orders dropped by more than 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous round. The weekly operating rate of the silicone industry was basically stable, and a small amount of monomer production capacity under maintenance would resume production next week, with the industry's operating rate increasing slightly to around 70%. The operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry changed little, with the primary aluminum alloy sector operating steadily, while the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy sector was restricted by the tight supply of raw material scrap aluminum [6][7] 3.4 Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the industrial silicon market was in a "weak supply and demand" dilemma this week. The core of the market game lies in the confrontation between the rising cost in the dry season in the southwest region and the collective weakness of downstream demand. Currently, the downward space of the market is supported by cost, but the upward space is limited due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the silicon price will mainly fluctuate in the future [8]