原木数据日报-20251028

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Log Data Daily Report" and is from the Guomao Futures Research Institute, dated October 28, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The log fundamentals are weakening due to ample supply and the demand entering the off - season. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu have been lowered, and the expected increase in the outer market has been weakened by Sino - US trade negotiations, leading to a sharp decline in the futures market. It is not recommended to continue short - selling on the 01 contract in the short term as the current 01 contract price is lower than the spot delivery cost. Short - selling after a rebound can be considered later [5] Group 4: Price Information Spot and Futures Prices - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9m medium A has a spot price of 760 yuan and a futures price of 820 yuan; 5.9m medium A has a spot price of 800 yuan and a futures price of 860 yuan; 3.9m small A has a spot price of 720 yuan and a futures price of 790 yuan; 5.9m small A has a spot price of 760 yuan and a futures price of 830 yuan. In Jiangsu, for radiation pine, 4m medium A has a spot price of 770 yuan and a futures price of 830 yuan; 6m medium A has a spot price of 800 yuan and a futures price of 860 yuan; 4m small A has a spot price of 720 yuan and a futures price of 790 yuan; 6m small A has a spot price of 750 yuan and a futures price of 810 yuan [5] Outer - Market and Futures Price Changes - The outer - market quotation for 4m medium A radiation pine changed from 113 - 115 dollars/JAS cubic meter in September to 115 - 117 dollars/JAS cubic meter in October, an increase of 2. The LG2511 futures price dropped from 796.5 yuan/cubic meter to 763 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 33.5. The LG2601 futures price dropped from 829.5 yuan/cubic meter to 796.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 33 [5] Downstream Wood Square Prices - In Shandong and Jiangsu, the price of wood squares (400050100) remained unchanged at 1270 yuan [5] Group 5: Supply Information Import Volume - In September 2025, the import volume of New Zealand logs was 149.93 million cubic meters (compared to 130.6 million cubic meters in August), North American logs was 10.6 million cubic meters (compared to 10.1 million cubic meters in August), and European logs was 16.61 million cubic meters (compared to 14.8 million cubic meters in August). From October 11 - 17 to October 18 - 24, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China increased from 26 million JAS cubic meters to 31 million JAS cubic meters [5] Group 6: Inventory Information Total Inventory - The total inventory on October 17 was 292 million cubic meters, down from 299 million cubic meters on October 10. Shandong's inventory on October 17 was 184 million cubic meters, down from 189 million cubic meters on October 10. Jiangsu's inventory on October 17 was 88.7 million cubic meters, up slightly from 88 million cubic meters on October 10 [5] Daily Average Out - Bound Volume - The daily average out - bound volume on October 17 was 6.32 million cubic meters, up from 5.73 million cubic meters on October 10. Shandong's out - bound volume on October 17 was 3.42 million cubic meters, down slightly from 3.44 million cubic meters on October 10. Jiangsu's out - bound volume on October 17 was 2.42 million cubic meters, up from 1.79 million cubic meters on October 10 [5]