贵金属数据日报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The initial consensus reached in the China-US-Malaysia economic and trade consultations has boosted market risk appetite, suppressing precious metal prices. However, the lower-than-expected US CPI in October has strengthened the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the ongoing US government shutdown has provided support for precious metal prices [5][6]. - In the short term, gold is expected to maintain a volatile trend. For silver, the price difference between London silver and New York silver has been repaired to near par, and there is a risk of short - term adjustment in silver prices. In the long - term, the bullish logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on dips [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. Global central bank gold purchases continue, and the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to go long on dips [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - On October 27, 2025, compared with October 24, 2025, London gold spot decreased by 0.3% to $4078.42 per ounce, London silver spot remained unchanged at $48.32 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 0.4% to $4092.20 per ounce, CONEX silver increased by 0.7% to $48.34 per ounce, AU2512 decreased by 0.4% to 934.14 yuan per gram, AG2512 remained unchanged at 11332 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.4% to 932.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) increased by 0.6% to 11376 yuan per kilogram [4]. - Regarding price differences, from October 24 to 27, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference increased by 20.8% to - 1.56 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference increased by 309.5% to 44 yuan per kilogram, the gold domestic - foreign price difference (TD - London) increased by 4.2% to 3.16 yuan per gram, the silver domestic - foreign price difference (TD - London) decreased by 6.0% to - 945 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio decreased by 0.4% to 82.43, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio decreased by 1.1% to 84.66, AU2602 - 2512 increased by 148.9% to 6.62 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 increased by 476.9% to 75 yuan per kilogram [4]. 2. Position Data - As of October 24, 2025, compared with October 23, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.52% to 1046.93 tons, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.32% to 15419.8141 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold increased by 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the non - commercial short position increased by 9.43% to 66059 contracts, the non - commercial net long position increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts, the non - commercial long position of CONEX silver increased by 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the non - commercial short position decreased by 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts [4]. 3. Inventory Data - From October 24 to 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 87015 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 2.61% to 647643 kilograms. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.21% to 38877087 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.21% to 496946989 ounces [4]. 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Other Data - On October 27, 2025, compared with October 24, 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 0.07% to 98.94, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.48%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.01% to 4.02%, NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.50% to 61.44 dollars per barrel, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged at 7.09, the VIX decreased by 5.38% to 16.37, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.79% to 6791.69 [5]. 5. Market Review - On October 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.24% to 934.14 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.47% to 11394 yuan per kilogram [5].