棉花周报：棉成本初步明确，棉价上下空间暂有限-20251028

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - In the short term, the upward space for cotton prices is limited, and they will fluctuate within a narrow range. New cotton harvest is at its peak, increasing hedging pressure. The textile industry's peak season is lackluster, with limited downstream demand orders. Domestic commercial inventories are at a historical low, cushioning price drops. Although costs have recovered, textile enterprises are still generally operating at a loss. The basis has slightly declined, and spot prices are firm. The rising seed cotton purchase price, increased processing costs, and adjusted production expectations support cotton prices, but the weak recovery of downstream demand restricts price increases [3]. Section Summaries 01 Market Review - US Cotton Weekly Review: US cotton fluctuated weakly, trading around 65 cents/pound. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751 to 69,367 contracts, non - commercial short net positions increased by 2,020 to 114,787 contracts, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2,771 to - 45,420 contracts [9]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Review: Zhengzhou cotton rose under pressure, trading at 13,350 - 13,610 yuan/ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,540 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 205 yuan or 1.54%. As of October 24, the registered and forecasted cotton warehouse receipts totaled 3,188 contracts, equivalent to 133,896 tons [10]. - Cotton Textile Spot Weekly Data: Spot prices were generally stable, but trading was light. The seed cotton purchase price has been rising since the start of the season, and the current price is 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, providing some support for cotton prices. The overall spot basis has narrowed, and many cotton merchants have lowered their spot sales basis [12][14]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market - Supply: The China Cotton Association predicts that the 2025/26 cotton production will reach 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Xinjiang's output is expected to be 6.911 billion tons, a 9.2% increase, accounting for 95.8% of the national total. New cotton listing is slower than in previous years. In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, with Australia and Brazil being the main sources [17][25]. - Demand: Demand is weaker than in previous years. Domestic demand has no obvious positive factors, while exports have slightly improved. Weaving mills'开机率 has declined after the holiday, and they are purchasing raw materials on a wait - and - see basis [27][33]. - Profit: This week, the processing profit of ginning mills was 409 - 519 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 950.8 - - 835.3 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to last week [36]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 24, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4334 million tons, a weekly increase of 278,000 tons but 202,800 tons lower than last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a decrease of 46,800 tons from the previous month [42]. 03 International Market - Global Cotton Supply and Demand: According to the USDA's September forecast, global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. Total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [44]. - US Cotton Export: Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have stopped being released [47]. - US Cotton Growth Status: The report does not provide detailed information on US cotton growth status.