白糖周报：白糖市场成本支撑凸显，多空因素交织震荡-20251028

Report Overview - Report Title: "Sugar Market Cost Support Highlights, Long and Short Factors Intertwined in Volatility - Sugar Weekly Report from October 20 - 24, 2025" [1] - Author: Yang Jiangtao [1] - Professional Certificate Number: F03117249 [1] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022644 [1] - Contact Information: 0371 - 58620082 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The current sugar market is in a volatile stage supported by costs, with the balance of power between bulls and bears in a tug - of - war between increased supply (Brazil's sugar production increase + the start of the Northern Hemisphere's sugar production season) and weak demand (spot price cuts + reduced imports). The production cost line of 5420 yuan in Guangxi forms a key support, but there is a lack of upward momentum. It is expected that the sugar futures main contract will oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5480 yuan in the next 1 - 2 weeks [3] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - Futures: The closing price of the No. 11 sugar continuous contract decreased by 3.42% from 15.5 to 14.97; the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract increased by 0.63% from 5412 to 5446 [5] - Spot: The spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all decreased, with decreases ranging from 0.34% to 0.53% [5] - Basis: The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 21.48% from 298 to 234 [5] - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.77% from 8418 to 8185, while the effective forecast increased from 0 to 586. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 4.19% from 8418 to 8771 [5] - Market Sentiment: The proportion of bullish sentiment towards Zhengzhou sugar increased by 5% to 20%, the proportion of bearish sentiment decreased by 5% to 50%, and the proportion of neutral sentiment remained unchanged at 30% [5] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - No specific content is provided in the given text. 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.2 Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Major Chinese Regions - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.3 Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Major Chinese Regions - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.6 Major Sugar Importing Countries of China - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 2.64% to 4124 yuan/ton, the in - quota import profit increased by 4.99% to 1767 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 2.72% to 5263 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 23.14% to 628 yuan/ton [30] - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 3.28% to 4040 yuan/ton, the in - quota import profit increased by 6.20% to 1851 yuan/ton, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 3.34% to 5154 yuan/ton, and the out - quota import profit increased by 25.55% to 737 yuan/ton [30] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.2 Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - In the second half of September, Brazil's sugar production was 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76% [3] 3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.5 Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - No specific content is provided in the given text. 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs - No specific content is provided in the given text.