国贸商品指数日报-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On October 27, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with new energy materials leading the gains and agricultural products showing mixed performance. The report analyzes the market trends of different commodity sectors and their influencing factors, and provides an outlook on the future market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series - All black series commodities rose. Despite weak terminal demand for steel, heavy - pollution weather emergency responses in Hebei led to a collective rise. Last week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.73% week - on - week to 15.5485 million tons, but was 23.47% higher than the same period last year. Production increased by 0.98% week - on - week, and apparent demand increased by 1.98% week - on - week to 8.9273 million tons, slightly lower than last year. The overall supply - demand pattern still poses pressure on price increases [1]. Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. The macro - environment has improved recently. China's "155" plan was passed last week, and the Sino - US trade negotiation reached a preliminary consensus over the weekend, boosting market confidence and metal demand expectations. The lower - than - expected US CPI in September deepened market bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts, making overseas liquidity more relaxed. However, high prices may suppress downstream demand [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - Most energy and chemical products rose. Short - term geopolitical disturbances pushed up oil prices, and the SC crude oil main contract drove the energy - chemical sector to close higher. Due to US sanctions on Russian oil companies, supply concerns persist, but demand remains weak, and the oversupply of crude oil remains unchanged. In the short term, it is a rebound after an oversell, and the medium - term upside is limited [1]. Oilseeds and Oils - Oilseeds and oils showed mixed performance. The market has positive expectations for the Sino - US trade negotiation, and CBOT soybeans continued to be strong. However, the double - meal market is cautious due to uncertainties about US soybean procurement. Malaysian palm oil exports decreased from October 1 - 25, while production increased, and the market expects inventory to rise, causing palm oil prices to weaken. In the short term, the oil market may continue to fluctuate [1].